yeah its similar to a classic rare disease screening example in text books: http://www.math.hmc.edu/funfacts/ffiles/30002.6.shtml http://www.math.hmc.edu/funfa

yeah its similar to a classic rare disease screening example in text books: http://www.math.hmc.edu/funfacts/ffiles/30002.6.shtml http://www.math.hmc.edu/funfacts/ffiles/30002.6.shtml (sorry its a bit informal, it was first google hit, but I have seen that in real textbooks for sure) Although its a bit confusing associating the prior with geometric proximity to the oval chair.