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Also worth noting is the fact that the Bitcoin Price Index has been massively resilient to all the bad "news" thats been pouring in this month. It has been cons

by ayanb 13y ago

Also worth noting is the fact that the Bitcoin Price Index has been massively resilient to all the bad "news" thats been pouring in this month. It has been consistently hovering around the 670-700 mark.

glomph 13y ago
Wasn't it 800 at the start of the month?
- deweerdt 13y ago
  http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60ztgSzm1g10zm...
eterm 13y ago
I can't find the article now, but there have been several good articles explaining the lack of gravity on bitcoin in general. Basically, the price goes up quickly when new people are attracted to bitcoin and rush to buy. When the price dips however, because so much is bought for long term speculation, the price doesn't really dip much, as no one is incentivised to sell and hold out for when it gets better. At some point the nerve of those holding out may crack, but if you read silly saurus2's post, its quite clear that many will hold out indefinitely on the belief or hope it will one day recover. So in this manner the bubble can deflate slowly. (If you call 10% in a day slow). There are no settlement dates or ways to easily move money out (especially now) so a crash is prevented. If a crash happens it'll probably happen before people realise it, but suddenly there just won't be anyone wanting to buy coins anymore. But even that might not happen as people already invested into bitcoin use how wealthy they feel to buy bitcoins from each other. That can cycle for a long time before people realise there isn't new money in bitcoin. If you had bought coins at 800-1000, why would you sell now? No one likes to cement a loss. Those with the most reason to sell right now are the early adopters, but it's not actually clear how many of those coins are actually reachable.
- thisiswrong 13y ago
  Wow this makes a lot of sense. I personally believe that this is yet again another one of BTC's large dips that will eventually recover onto it's upwards path. But then if people panic and see how hard it is to get back into fiat from BTC won't they just go into relatively stable altcoins instead? For example DOGE is skyrocketing as we speak and it's USD price was totally unaffected by BTC's recent plummet. http://coinmarketcap.com/ http://coinmarketcap.com/
  - deleted 13y ago
    [deleted]
  - gus_massa 13y ago
    Is doge inmmune to this multiple hash malleability feature? EDIT: "If" -> "Is".
    - jafaku 13y ago
      No coin is immune to this. What, you thought other coins had their own code? Nope, they are all just a copy/paste of Bitcoin's code. Specifically Dogecoin was "coded" (copy/pasted) in a Friday night, according to it's founder. So I don't know what you were expecting.
      - gus_massa 13y ago
        Just curiosity. I thought they copied the code from Litecoin and I was not sure if in any of the intermediate steps someone decided to fix this. It will be interesting to see how each developer set and community handle this problem (and the future problems). Disclaimer: I don’t own BTC or DOGE (or LTC or any other virtual currency).
        jafaku 13y ago
        There isn't really any development team comparable to that of Bitcoin in a different coin. Things that get fixed in Bitcoin are not fixed in other coins. But if another coin happens to fix something, it will be fixed in Bitcoin too. Typically a copycoin will only have the same fixes as Bitcoin depending on when they decided to copy it. But then they will invariably lag behind.
hayksaakian 13y ago
part of the reason is that bit coin does not depend on any banks if you have 100 btc in an offline wallet, you will still have it tomorrow, despite whatever bugs/attacks hit the exchanges. imagine if your bank was hacked, many people would literally be removed of their money. With cryptocoins, you have the advantages of keeping dollars under your mattress while still bring able to spend them anywhere that accepts them.
- akkartik 13y ago
  Is that really true? Could a botnet not conceivably make transactions out of your wallet? Doesn't the distributed ledger have tentacles reaching under your mattress?
  - mrkickling 13y ago
    http://learncryptography.com/51-attack/ http://learncryptography.com/51-attack/ I guess it would be possible.
    - SomeoneWeird 13y ago
      No, even if you successfully achieve a 51% attack, you can't spend coins from arbitrary wallets.
      - mrkickling 13y ago
        Well, you could control the blockchain, wouldn't that include spending coins from any wallet?
        maxerickson 13y ago
        No. Transactions have to be signed by a private key matching the from address. The double spend attack works by convincing the other party that the transaction has completed (so they release whatever escrow is in place) and then replacing the blockchain. (But a botnet infection could watch for wallets on a computer and cause the coins in the wallet to be spent)
higherpurpose 13y ago
I wish I didn't buy at $900 and at least would've sold soon after, otherwise I'd buy some now. These events where some pretty major bug is found in Bitcoin are great opportunities to buy Bitcoin at a "low price" (as low as you can get in that moment in Bitcoin's history). I'm not worried about the bugs themselves because I know they will be fixed.
maaku 13y ago
You know that it was up above 800 before this started on last Friday, right?
- MartinCron 13y ago
  Given all of the historic volatility, a drop from 800 to 600 must not feel abnormal to bitcoin investors. It could have been much, much worse, I guess?
  - maaku 13y ago
    By my rough back-of-the-envelope calculation, something like $50 million dollars changed hands on Monday based on unsubstantiated fear, uncertainty, doubt, and outright lies. Volatility is one thing, market manipulation is another.

by ayanb 13y ago

glomph 13y ago

Wasn't it 800 at the start of the month?

deweerdt 13y ago
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg60ztgSzm1g10zm...

eterm 13y ago

I can't find the article now, but there have been several good articles explaining the lack of gravity on bitcoin in general. Basically, the price goes up quickly when new people are attracted to bitcoin and rush to buy. When the price dips however, because so much is bought for long term speculation, the price doesn't really dip much, as no one is incentivised to sell and hold out for when it gets better. At some point the nerve of those holding out may crack, but if you read silly saurus2's post, its quite clear that many will hold out indefinitely on the belief or hope it will one day recover. So in this manner the bubble can deflate slowly. (If you call 10% in a day slow). There are no settlement dates or ways to easily move money out (especially now) so a crash is prevented. If a crash happens it'll probably happen before people realise it, but suddenly there just won't be anyone wanting to buy coins anymore. But even that might not happen as people already invested into bitcoin use how wealthy they feel to buy bitcoins from each other. That can cycle for a long time before people realise there isn't new money in bitcoin. If you had bought coins at 800-1000, why would you sell now? No one likes to cement a loss. Those with the most reason to sell right now are the early adopters, but it's not actually clear how many of those coins are actually reachable.

thisiswrong 13y ago
Wow this makes a lot of sense. I personally believe that this is yet again another one of BTC's large dips that will eventually recover onto it's upwards path. But then if people panic and see how hard it is to get back into fiat from BTC won't they just go into relatively stable altcoins instead? For example DOGE is skyrocketing as we speak and it's USD price was totally unaffected by BTC's recent plummet. http://coinmarketcap.com/ http://coinmarketcap.com/
- deleted 13y ago
  [deleted]
- gus_massa 13y ago
  Is doge inmmune to this multiple hash malleability feature? EDIT: "If" -> "Is".
  - jafaku 13y ago
    No coin is immune to this. What, you thought other coins had their own code? Nope, they are all just a copy/paste of Bitcoin's code. Specifically Dogecoin was "coded" (copy/pasted) in a Friday night, according to it's founder. So I don't know what you were expecting.
    - gus_massa 13y ago
      Just curiosity. I thought they copied the code from Litecoin and I was not sure if in any of the intermediate steps someone decided to fix this. It will be interesting to see how each developer set and community handle this problem (and the future problems). Disclaimer: I don’t own BTC or DOGE (or LTC or any other virtual currency).
      - jafaku 13y ago
        There isn't really any development team comparable to that of Bitcoin in a different coin. Things that get fixed in Bitcoin are not fixed in other coins. But if another coin happens to fix something, it will be fixed in Bitcoin too. Typically a copycoin will only have the same fixes as Bitcoin depending on when they decided to copy it. But then they will invariably lag behind.

hayksaakian 13y ago

part of the reason is that bit coin does not depend on any banks if you have 100 btc in an offline wallet, you will still have it tomorrow, despite whatever bugs/attacks hit the exchanges. imagine if your bank was hacked, many people would literally be removed of their money. With cryptocoins, you have the advantages of keeping dollars under your mattress while still bring able to spend them anywhere that accepts them.

akkartik 13y ago
Is that really true? Could a botnet not conceivably make transactions out of your wallet? Doesn't the distributed ledger have tentacles reaching under your mattress?
- mrkickling 13y ago
  http://learncryptography.com/51-attack/ http://learncryptography.com/51-attack/ I guess it would be possible.
  - SomeoneWeird 13y ago
    No, even if you successfully achieve a 51% attack, you can't spend coins from arbitrary wallets.
    - mrkickling 13y ago
      Well, you could control the blockchain, wouldn't that include spending coins from any wallet?
      - maxerickson 13y ago
        No. Transactions have to be signed by a private key matching the from address. The double spend attack works by convincing the other party that the transaction has completed (so they release whatever escrow is in place) and then replacing the blockchain. (But a botnet infection could watch for wallets on a computer and cause the coins in the wallet to be spent)

higherpurpose 13y ago

I wish I didn't buy at $900 and at least would've sold soon after, otherwise I'd buy some now. These events where some pretty major bug is found in Bitcoin are great opportunities to buy Bitcoin at a "low price" (as low as you can get in that moment in Bitcoin's history). I'm not worried about the bugs themselves because I know they will be fixed.

maaku 13y ago

You know that it was up above 800 before this started on last Friday, right?

MartinCron 13y ago
Given all of the historic volatility, a drop from 800 to 600 must not feel abnormal to bitcoin investors. It could have been much, much worse, I guess?
- maaku 13y ago
  By my rough back-of-the-envelope calculation, something like $50 million dollars changed hands on Monday based on unsubstantiated fear, uncertainty, doubt, and outright lies. Volatility is one thing, market manipulation is another.