4 ms·

Can I catch a break? http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6926472 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6926472 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7195024 http:

Can I catch a break? http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6926472 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6926472 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7195024 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7195024 http://i.imgur.com/5TAwopR.png http://i.imgur.com/5TAwopR.png There are few times in my adult life I've felt like crying actual tears, but this is one of them. Four times since that first comment, the bitcoin price has recovered to $1,000, then dipped back down again. Four times I didn't sell. The silver lining is that Gox's explanation is correct on a technical level. There is every reason to believe this explanation to be true. This isn't (just) me being hopeful; this is because if you investigate whether it's true, you'll find out it is true.) For further details see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7203544 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7203544 Since I've only been able to withdraw 3.4 bitcoin, I'm at the mercy of Gox. It's entirely possible that I'll wind up with less than $1,000, from $11,000. An expensive life lesson, but at least it's recoverable. EDIT: I apologize if this comment didn't contribute anything. I sometimes use HN for moral support. I'm just shocked at what's happened. EDIT2: This surely shouldn't be the top comment... it's important to get information out to people in a crisis situation like this. This was just me being sad and gathering information from those more experienced. Thank you though.

minikomi 13y ago
Someone just sold for $102 on btc-e. Be careful out there!
- yetfeo 13y ago
  On the other hand someone bought on btc-e for $102. Good price...assuming the current spiral downward on the Mt Gox news reverses.
  - marvin 13y ago
    If Bitcoin is here to stay, the MtGox debacle won't have any lasting effect regardless.
davidw 13y ago
I suppose it is viscerally obvious to you at this point, but putting money into something like Bitcoin should be considered one step up from putting it all on 31 and letting it ride: don't do it with money you consider important.
- sillysaurus2 13y ago
  Indeed. I was young and dumb, as so many before me. Lesson learned.
- coldtea 13y ago
  I don't get why people who don't trust banks go and deposit money to the first BS "service" that's a guy and his dog, implemented in 2 weeks, full of holes and bugs, and with nothing much as financial assurances and security that you'll even get your money out.
  - pjc50 13y ago
    Because banks are "the Man", while bitcoin is "one weird trick .. bankers hate it!" Social proof by negative. The crypto also triggers a geeky faith in technology. Because the crypto is sound, it's just the way it's being used is problematic. And the institutions around it are very flaky, but geeks hate institutional politics and dream of eliminating it by technological fiat.
  - betterunix 13y ago
    Who said they don't trust banks? I think what you are really asking is, "Why would people who see a get-rich-quick opportunity put their money in such an operation?"
pjc50 13y ago
Did you not understand what you were getting into? Did you imagine it would rise forever? Did you think that an unregulated exchange in a foreign country designed for a different purpose was a safe bet? Did you ignore the rising tide of complaints about Gox? http://www.shareprice.co.uk/pages/risk-warning-trading http://www.shareprice.co.uk/pages/risk-warning-trading : "You may not necessarily get back any of the amount you invested."
lmm 13y ago
Don't expect sympathy from us. It's not like you did a load of hard work and then got taken advantage of. Depending how you look at it you put a bunch of money either into a gamble, or betting on your own judgement (which, if bitcoin loses its value, will have proven to be wrong).
- deleted 13y ago
  [deleted]
marvin 13y ago
You clearly do not have the heart for asset speculation. I am not trying to be mean here, but the emotional reactions you show in these comments and the fact that they utterly destroy your ability to stick to the rational decisions you've made, is comprimising your investment decisions. So there's two paths from here: Either this is the experience that hardens you and makes you stop thinking "oh shit, I just lost two months' salary in six hours" (this happens all the time when you have a significant amount invested in a volatile asset), or you realize that things won't change and you can't live with the risk of losing your investment. If you choose the latter option, you will also need to stop kicking yourself if three years from now, the asset you sold has trippled in value. In fact, you should stop kicking yourself right now. The problem here is your emotional reaction, not Bitcoin's volatility. I know how you feel; I've been up and down $30,000 this year over the course of a few weeks in the stock market, but second-guessing yourself only serves to waste your attention. Make a plan, know the consequences and stick to it.
- sillysaurus2 13y ago
  Thank you for your insight. How do you decide when to sell? I had four opportunities and let them all pass by, because I was hoping "this time I'll recover my initial investment." That's greed, of course, but how do you make a plan and stick to it in these circumstances? Do you decide ahead of time that you're willing to walk away with a 20% loss, rather than wait a year and see what happens?
  - ronaldx 13y ago
    You are stuck in classic gambler's conceit[0] (Essentially: when you are behind you believe that you can quit while you're ahead, but when you are ahead you feel confident and prefer to press your luck) In general, if you are investing some place that makes you feel anxious or emotional about the consequences, it's far too volatile and you should cut your investment down. The best way to escape from this situation is to make an exact plan and stick to it. Would you rather walk away now, or risk a worse loss later? Then, at what value will you cash out? I understand you are attached to your initial investment cost, but really 100% is the valuation now, since the rest is sunk costs. Decide how you like, but firmly - take the emotion out of your decision making. [0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_conceit https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_conceit
kristianp 13y ago
Don't panic, the way I see it, is that this is another temporary crash in the price of bitcoin, caused by bad news. Once the mtGox problem is out of the way, bitcoin may resume it's rise. May is the operative word there, of course, but I think it's likely.
deleted 13y ago
[deleted]
tinco 13y ago
No, you are still learning the lesson, it's not been learned at all. You are being illogical about your investment. Go back to the moment you bought the Bitcoin. You apparently thought they were worth $1000 per Bitcoin at that moment, there is nothing wrong with that. That you invested in Bitcoin means you expected them to rise, do you remember how much you expected them to rise? In what timespan? Does the price going down for now affect that estimation? In what way? Why would you sell your Bitcoin? There's answers to all those questions that go in every direction, but they lie in the future, so the only thing you can do is make a reasonable prediction, and hope it was realistic enough. Some people think Bitcoin will go to $10k, some people think Bitcoin will prove useless and die out. Decide in which camp you are. About MtGox: If MtGox would somehow mess up bad enough that your money/btc is not safe there, that would hit the BTC so bad that its value would at least half, if not more, at every exchange. Trying to withdraw your bitcoin now is madness, you're just risking getting it stuck. Be careful with your panicking. I myself am too afraid to go long on Bitcoin, if I had I'd have over 10x my original investment now, instead I just speculate and profit from panic sellers, it's fun and pretty low risk. I sell whenever Bitcoin is stable, and buy whenever there's panic. I don't believe in Bitcoin being worth $1000 right now, but I do believe that the technology and ideas are solid enough, that whenever there's a panic the price will recuperate fairly quickly as people realize not actually all that much changed.
jlgaddis 13y ago
Having gotten in when they were so (relatively) "cheap", it's hard to imagine pay > $1000/each. I certainly can't complain, as I bought $10k BTC at $7/ea and sold 'em when it hit $30 (c. June 2011), but I sure wish I had held onto 'em!
TomGullen 13y ago
Why did you use MtGox. You should of done research before investing that much money. If you'd done rudimentary research, you would of immediately seen that MtGox was a very risky exchange to use... even just for very short term transactions. I'm lost as to why anyone actually still used MtGox over the last 6 months or so. Secondly if you can't stomach the swings in Bitcoin, it's not the speculatory investment for you. You need to have a plan and stick to it. Buy and hold for 5 years is a reasonable plan. I'm sorry if this isn't sympathetic, but you need to learn from your mistake.

minikomi 13y ago

Someone just sold for $102 on btc-e. Be careful out there!

yetfeo 13y ago
On the other hand someone bought on btc-e for $102. Good price...assuming the current spiral downward on the Mt Gox news reverses.
- marvin 13y ago
  If Bitcoin is here to stay, the MtGox debacle won't have any lasting effect regardless.

davidw 13y ago

I suppose it is viscerally obvious to you at this point, but putting money into something like Bitcoin should be considered one step up from putting it all on 31 and letting it ride: don't do it with money you consider important.

sillysaurus2 13y ago
Indeed. I was young and dumb, as so many before me. Lesson learned.
coldtea 13y ago
I don't get why people who don't trust banks go and deposit money to the first BS "service" that's a guy and his dog, implemented in 2 weeks, full of holes and bugs, and with nothing much as financial assurances and security that you'll even get your money out.
- pjc50 13y ago
  Because banks are "the Man", while bitcoin is "one weird trick .. bankers hate it!" Social proof by negative. The crypto also triggers a geeky faith in technology. Because the crypto is sound, it's just the way it's being used is problematic. And the institutions around it are very flaky, but geeks hate institutional politics and dream of eliminating it by technological fiat.
- betterunix 13y ago
  Who said they don't trust banks? I think what you are really asking is, "Why would people who see a get-rich-quick opportunity put their money in such an operation?"

pjc50 13y ago

Did you not understand what you were getting into? Did you imagine it would rise forever? Did you think that an unregulated exchange in a foreign country designed for a different purpose was a safe bet? Did you ignore the rising tide of complaints about Gox? http://www.shareprice.co.uk/pages/risk-warning-trading http://www.shareprice.co.uk/pages/risk-warning-trading : "You may not necessarily get back any of the amount you invested."

lmm 13y ago

Don't expect sympathy from us. It's not like you did a load of hard work and then got taken advantage of. Depending how you look at it you put a bunch of money either into a gamble, or betting on your own judgement (which, if bitcoin loses its value, will have proven to be wrong).

deleted 13y ago
[deleted]

marvin 13y ago

You clearly do not have the heart for asset speculation. I am not trying to be mean here, but the emotional reactions you show in these comments and the fact that they utterly destroy your ability to stick to the rational decisions you've made, is comprimising your investment decisions. So there's two paths from here: Either this is the experience that hardens you and makes you stop thinking "oh shit, I just lost two months' salary in six hours" (this happens all the time when you have a significant amount invested in a volatile asset), or you realize that things won't change and you can't live with the risk of losing your investment. If you choose the latter option, you will also need to stop kicking yourself if three years from now, the asset you sold has trippled in value. In fact, you should stop kicking yourself right now. The problem here is your emotional reaction, not Bitcoin's volatility. I know how you feel; I've been up and down $30,000 this year over the course of a few weeks in the stock market, but second-guessing yourself only serves to waste your attention. Make a plan, know the consequences and stick to it.

sillysaurus2 13y ago
Thank you for your insight. How do you decide when to sell? I had four opportunities and let them all pass by, because I was hoping "this time I'll recover my initial investment." That's greed, of course, but how do you make a plan and stick to it in these circumstances? Do you decide ahead of time that you're willing to walk away with a 20% loss, rather than wait a year and see what happens?
- ronaldx 13y ago
  You are stuck in classic gambler's conceit[0] (Essentially: when you are behind you believe that you can quit while you're ahead, but when you are ahead you feel confident and prefer to press your luck) In general, if you are investing some place that makes you feel anxious or emotional about the consequences, it's far too volatile and you should cut your investment down. The best way to escape from this situation is to make an exact plan and stick to it. Would you rather walk away now, or risk a worse loss later? Then, at what value will you cash out? I understand you are attached to your initial investment cost, but really 100% is the valuation now, since the rest is sunk costs. Decide how you like, but firmly - take the emotion out of your decision making. [0]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_conceit https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_conceit

kristianp 13y ago

Don't panic, the way I see it, is that this is another temporary crash in the price of bitcoin, caused by bad news. Once the mtGox problem is out of the way, bitcoin may resume it's rise. May is the operative word there, of course, but I think it's likely.

deleted 13y ago

[deleted]

tinco 13y ago

No, you are still learning the lesson, it's not been learned at all. You are being illogical about your investment. Go back to the moment you bought the Bitcoin. You apparently thought they were worth $1000 per Bitcoin at that moment, there is nothing wrong with that. That you invested in Bitcoin means you expected them to rise, do you remember how much you expected them to rise? In what timespan? Does the price going down for now affect that estimation? In what way? Why would you sell your Bitcoin? There's answers to all those questions that go in every direction, but they lie in the future, so the only thing you can do is make a reasonable prediction, and hope it was realistic enough. Some people think Bitcoin will go to $10k, some people think Bitcoin will prove useless and die out. Decide in which camp you are. About MtGox: If MtGox would somehow mess up bad enough that your money/btc is not safe there, that would hit the BTC so bad that its value would at least half, if not more, at every exchange. Trying to withdraw your bitcoin now is madness, you're just risking getting it stuck. Be careful with your panicking. I myself am too afraid to go long on Bitcoin, if I had I'd have over 10x my original investment now, instead I just speculate and profit from panic sellers, it's fun and pretty low risk. I sell whenever Bitcoin is stable, and buy whenever there's panic. I don't believe in Bitcoin being worth $1000 right now, but I do believe that the technology and ideas are solid enough, that whenever there's a panic the price will recuperate fairly quickly as people realize not actually all that much changed.

jlgaddis 13y ago

Having gotten in when they were so (relatively) "cheap", it's hard to imagine pay > $1000/each. I certainly can't complain, as I bought $10k BTC at $7/ea and sold 'em when it hit $30 (c. June 2011), but I sure wish I had held onto 'em!

TomGullen 13y ago

Why did you use MtGox. You should of done research before investing that much money. If you'd done rudimentary research, you would of immediately seen that MtGox was a very risky exchange to use... even just for very short term transactions. I'm lost as to why anyone actually still used MtGox over the last 6 months or so. Secondly if you can't stomach the swings in Bitcoin, it's not the speculatory investment for you. You need to have a plan and stick to it. Buy and hold for 5 years is a reasonable plan. I'm sorry if this isn't sympathetic, but you need to learn from your mistake.