It's great realizing, when reading a 35 year old polemic, that the chief issue with its criticisms was that it allocated WAY too little probability space to the

It's great realizing, when reading a 35 year old polemic, that the chief issue with its criticisms was that it allocated WAY too little probability space to the outcome "worse than even we think it will be." For example, the debate in the article is between optimists who think the shuttle will hit 70 flights a year and pessimists who said 20. Nobody had their money on "four." The article also describes Challenger and Columbia in chilling detail in advance. Quote: "The plan is, you die."