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Ok, based on yours and many other similar comments below I only now see where my argument isn't understood as I wanted it to be. Not that I think that now you a
by middayc 13y ago
Ok, based on yours and many other similar comments below I only now see where my argument isn't understood as I wanted it to be. Not that I think that now you and others will agree with me, but just to make this clear.
I do not think that people would "then be consciously good at probability" (I said naturally / later added instinctively), but that the results of their unconscious processes / intuition, would then be better matching the probability-wise view of the problem. While I think that exactly the intuition seems to fail the most at probability (planes, terror attacks, ...).