My argument doesn't assume that we don't have unconscious processes. Maybe I didn't express well what I think. I do think we have multiple "minds" (I even wrote

My argument doesn't assume that we don't have unconscious processes. Maybe I didn't express well what I think. I do think we have multiple "minds" (I even wrote a blogpost on this subject on another blog once). Maybe my "then people would be naturally great at probability" came out as if we would then consciously know about probability, know the formulas etc without the need to learn about them. No. I tried to say that if so then results of our "fast" mind would be very well attuned to probabilistic study of the problem. For example, you wouldn't become scared when boarding a plane. I will try to write another blogpost being more precise. Not that it's worth anything, more for myself. I won't post it here, not because of opposing comments, but because many think this is not a HN material and I don't want to spam. Not that it matters, obviously. But I don't think there is no probability processing anywhere in the system (we do conscious probability if not else). My thoughts were that it can't be the main or important driver behind it all. I think the memory itself (storage and "soft" retrieval of information .. my theory on models that we make) plays much more important role in our function than any special or complex algorithm. Again, not that it matters what I think.