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Most long-term predictions tend to be made by people living in pockets where the future has already arrived, but it seems appropriate to recall Gibson's predict
by chriskottom 13y ago
Most long-term predictions tend to be made by people living in pockets where the future has already arrived, but it seems appropriate to recall Gibson's prediction about uneven future distribution. Trying to extrapolate based on local maxima will always produce a trendline that outpaces reality. To his credit, I don't see any flying cars here; the author bases many of his predictions on innovations and trends that are already to some extent or other in progress. But in order to bring a change from possible to widespread, it has to be commercialized first, and I struggle to see a profit motive for some of these things, even in the next 30 years - i.e. energy consumption monitoring by Google when electricity is cheap thanks to nuclear fission, etc.
- raywu 13y agoVery insightful! Thanks for mentioning: Gibson and local maxima. I completely agree with your view on commercialization; in terms of monitoring consumption: I think there will be money in analytics/data that help us push forward ubiquitous computing (even if electricity is cheap)