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It's a challenging issue, all right. The important part that I don't see many people discuss is the nature of international relations, most of which is based on
by ufmace 13y ago
It's a challenging issue, all right. The important part that I don't see many people discuss is the nature of international relations, most of which is based on how other national leaders and decision-makers will perceive your actions.
Consider: North Korea is run by madmen who have at least some primitive nuclear capability. They regularly make wild accusations and threats against the US. Say they do manage to mount a nuclear device on a long-range rocket. What's to hold them back against launching it at a major US city? Whenever people discuss North Korean (or Iranian or...) nuclear capability, the usual line is that we don't need to worry about it that much, since it would obviously be crazy for them to use them against the US, or any other nuclear power. What is it that makes it crazy, when they've already done so many terrible things to their own people?
It's crazy because, according to MAD, any such attack, or even a specific threat to make such an attack, would result in a full-scale launch against their country. Millions of casualties, the total destruction of their culture and way of life. Everyone in the world, most especially leaders in North Korea, and China, fully believes that the US will carry out this threat if attacked with nuclear weapons.
Now, let's say Iran manages to detonate a primitive nuclear device in a coastal US city. The textbook MAD reply is a total destruction of every Iranian city. You can make the case that this is crazy on it's face - there is no imminent threat to stop, and those millions of people who would die didn't do anything to deserve it. Say that what Hering and the article author seem to want happens - that no weapons are launched, and a more measured, conventional reply is used. What do you think the North Korean leaders will think then? Or China and Russia? That's the more important question to ask.
After that, might North Korea think that they can use a nuclear attack to try and extract some sort of diplomatic concession from us? They're a harder nut to crack with conventional weapons, and they have more firm backing from China. If they get the idea that our MAD policy is toothless, they might try something that could lead to a much greater war, even possibly a much bigger nuclear war.
We've been living in a world for a long time now where the Kim Jong-uns of the world have very good reason to be terrified of using nuclear weapons against the US. Are you willing to see what happens if that is no longer true?
There are terrible people in this world who are prepared to do terrible things to everything we hold dear. To keep the world safe and stable, those people must believe that we will do even more terrible things to them if the situation calls for it. Keeping that belief in place may sometimes require us to actually do some terrible things ourselves,
- CamperBob2 13y agoYou can make the case that this is crazy on it's face - there is no imminent threat to stop, and those millions of people who would die didn't do anything to deserve it. Some people might argue that it's the Iranian citizens' responsibility to stop their government from doing things that will get them all killed, such as nuking New York.
- abstrakraft 13y agoYou keep using that term MAD. I do not think it means what you think it means. You seem to imply that it's simply a policy of retaliating against any first strike with massive and lethal force. In fact, MAD, as a theory of nuclear deterrence, requires creating a situation in which a first strike from either side results in the total destruction of both sides, that is, mutually assured destruction. To be workable, this requires two things not present in the situations you describe (North Korea and Iran, or any other rogue state): 1. a rational enemy, i.e. an enemy for whom death is a bad thing. As much as American propaganda tried to paint the Soviets as godless monsters, they respected them as rational. Fundamentalists and North Koreans, not so much. 2. strategic parity - a nuke or two held together by duct tape, while certainly capable of causing much destruction, hardly gives anyone the capability of assuring the destruction of the US.
- the_af 13y agoWhy would you say Iran fails the first condition, i.e. that they aren't "a rational enemy"? They seem pretty rational to me. I can't be sure about North Korea, but for all the crazy news about them, they probably would behave like a rational enemy as well.
- abstrakraft 13y agoIf Kim Jong-Un was faced with personal defeat (threat of losing power), I have no doubt that he would sacrifice his citizens to go out in a blaze of glory worthy of the Great Successor. In a sense, he's sacrificing his citizens now to support his lavish lifestyle, only he's doing it one starving farmer at a time rather than the whole country in one flash. I'll defer arguing the rationality of the ruling power of Iran to someone with more knowledge. Bear in mind, my comment wasn't a slur against the people of Iran, but the government and military, i.e. those in the chain of command of potential nuclear weapons.