5 ms·

Hm, applying a bit of my personal sense, I'd say Exxon's business is drying up in the foreseeable future (oil is running out, renewable energy is on the rise).

Hm, applying a bit of my personal sense, I'd say Exxon's business is drying up in the foreseeable future (oil is running out, renewable energy is on the rise). Google is a software business with very strong network effects. I definitely see how there is more demand for software in 100 years than for oil (as a fuel). Economics is not a pure numbers game. They [edit: the numbers] just try abstract what the companies do now and in the future.

hawkharris 13y ago
Exxon Mobil invests more money in alternative energy research than any other organization in the world.
- JonFish85 13y ago
  Exxon Mobil isn't going anywhere. As oil-usage decreases (which is still likely a long ways off), I'm sure they'll be right there to provide whatever the next energy source is.
  - WildUtah 13y ago
    Actually worldwide oil usage peaked in 2005 and has been gyrating around that level ever since. About half the months since then have seen decreases and half increases, so it's not a long way off. It's almost a decade ago. Eventually heroic measures will start to fail and usage will be dropping every month for the next century as the oil fields slowly dry up.
    - waps 13y ago
      It's not just that. Investment projects to increase oil output are having costs going through the roof : http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303277704579348332283819314 http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1000142405270230327770... (just an example) But it's not just that EREOI in Saudi Arabian oil is projected to be at most 10 currently (down from > 30). While that's not that serious, it is decreasing exponentially and a value of < 5 would be catastrophic. Most other projects are far worse off. (Why ? At EREOI of 10 you have to "waste" 11% of oil, up from 4% at 30. However at 5, the factor becomes 25%, at 4 it's 33%, at 3 it's 51%, at 2 it's 100%), note that current total reseve oil output is 2% at best, and minimum depletion rates are 7%. Here's the net problem : the world will run out of oil in 6 months - 12 months. The US has a stay of execution though, but not for long : 2-3 years at most, and the US will need to implement protectionist measures to keep oil at a reasonable rate. Given what happened every other time we have a few percent drop in oil availability, I'm expecting a total stock crash and a new crisis by the end of the year.
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saryant 13y ago
Exxon is here to stay. This is a company that has seen 19 American presidents come and go. No other company in the world invests as much in energy R&D.

hawkharris 13y ago

Exxon Mobil invests more money in alternative energy research than any other organization in the world.

JonFish85 13y ago
Exxon Mobil isn't going anywhere. As oil-usage decreases (which is still likely a long ways off), I'm sure they'll be right there to provide whatever the next energy source is.
- WildUtah 13y ago
  Actually worldwide oil usage peaked in 2005 and has been gyrating around that level ever since. About half the months since then have seen decreases and half increases, so it's not a long way off. It's almost a decade ago. Eventually heroic measures will start to fail and usage will be dropping every month for the next century as the oil fields slowly dry up.
  - waps 13y ago
    It's not just that. Investment projects to increase oil output are having costs going through the roof : http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303277704579348332283819314 http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1000142405270230327770... (just an example) But it's not just that EREOI in Saudi Arabian oil is projected to be at most 10 currently (down from > 30). While that's not that serious, it is decreasing exponentially and a value of < 5 would be catastrophic. Most other projects are far worse off. (Why ? At EREOI of 10 you have to "waste" 11% of oil, up from 4% at 30. However at 5, the factor becomes 25%, at 4 it's 33%, at 3 it's 51%, at 2 it's 100%), note that current total reseve oil output is 2% at best, and minimum depletion rates are 7%. Here's the net problem : the world will run out of oil in 6 months - 12 months. The US has a stay of execution though, but not for long : 2-3 years at most, and the US will need to implement protectionist measures to keep oil at a reasonable rate. Given what happened every other time we have a few percent drop in oil availability, I'm expecting a total stock crash and a new crisis by the end of the year.

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saryant 13y ago

Exxon is here to stay. This is a company that has seen 19 American presidents come and go. No other company in the world invests as much in energy R&D.