Not sure which fallacy you refer to. I'm just trying to understand what is actually known about this issue and what is just anecdote like the OP. I know about

Not sure which fallacy you refer to. I'm just trying to understand what is actually known about this issue and what is just anecdote like the OP. I know about the collapse of the cod catch in 1992[1] as well as declining catch of some species of tuna in some areas[2]. On the other hand some fisheries have come back after they supposedly collapsed, such as the BC sockeye salmon[3]. And since the overall catch is roughly flat any losses must have been made up by increases in other species. Right? So I guess we are talking about a prediction for future global collapse. Is there good academic research on this? What is the specific forecast? What data do they use in their forecast? The best academic article I could find is this[4] from UCSB and seems to say we generally don't have enough information to make forecasts. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collapse_of_the_Atlantic_Northwest_Cod_Fishery https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collapse_of_the_Atlantic_North... [2] http://web.archive.org/web/20100327022746/http://www.iss-foundation.org/files/e71afd66-086a-41c7-a71c-c2935687dcef/ISSF_A-2%20Summary%20%283%29.pdf http://web.archive.org/web/20100327022746/http://www.iss-fou... [3] http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-sockeye-salmon-bounty-estimate-upped-to-30-million/article1378518/ http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-sock... [4] http://www.pnas.org/content/110/40/15859 http://www.pnas.org/content/110/40/15859