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The netflix data itself points to a gradual lowering of bandwidth to their service. Now here's 2 scenarios : 1) Verizon decided to enter some router configurat
by waps 13y ago
The netflix data itself points to a gradual lowering of bandwidth to their service. Now here's 2 scenarios :
1) Verizon decided to enter some router configurations that affect the packet forwarding to Netflix (well, most likely FROM netflix, as the internet is not actually symmetrical). What we should see as a result of this is a sudden change in bandwidth.
2) The load on the interfaces in between is changing, either because of more netflix subscribers, more AWS traffic, or more netflix traffic. Since these are things happening slowly over time, you'd see a gradual worsening of traffic conditions.
I think it's pretty fucking likely that what's happening here is 2). Now granted, Verizon could solve this problem by cooperating with Netflix. But for them that's an expense with no upside, so likely they're demanding Netflix make it worth their while to upgrade the interconnects.
This is one of the basic problems with the internet today. It used to be the case that bandwidth between providers was much more plentiful than last-mile bandwidth. So we upgraded last-mile bandwidth. Problem : doing that resulted in an exponential increase in load on the core network and the interconnects between different networks. Needless to say, nobody can keep up with exponentially rising demands (especially without subscriber growth). The basic problem is that a linear increase in bandwidth for the customer results in an exponential increase in costs for the ISP (so -surpise- small ISPs don't feel the effects nearly as badly).
So ISPs are desperate. Their costs are spiralling out of control, with everyone demanding they follow this exponential curve, but of course their customers not willing to pay for it (and all the money in the world would only buy time if thrown at this problem). Demanding the ISPs pay for it is simply not going to work. Right now, yes, they could theoretically pay for it, but that won't last long.
Plus Netflix is being a rather bad netizen themselves. The polite thing to do is to carry the traffic to very close to the user on your own network, and only use other's links, especially transit, as a last resort ("cold-potato" routing, for content providers). Netflix has caches, but no own network.
There's other problems that result from this cost problem. Already transcontinental and other long-haul links are strained to the limit. This has resulted in a massive degradation of non-local internet traffic, and it's getting worse fast.
It is really a very simple problem. You have consumers, and you have producers. And you get more and more of each. To a limited approximation you can assume everyone on the internet is both. To simplify things, let's say everyone uses a tiny amount of everyone else's services. Now given N participants in the network, what is the load on the core network ?
N * (N - 1) =~ N^2 (assuming full duplex links, which would be generally correct for the internet)
So adding more participants in the internet increases resources required to give every existing participant in the network his "old" speed. These need to be paid for. But unless everyone want to start paying an amount for your internet connections that rises with the square of the size of the internet, we're going to see progressively worse and worse throttling. Right now the strategy is fast becoming limiting interconnect capacity to prevent the core network overloading, which would have far worse consequences.
While, yes, historically this has mostly been monopolies cheating the market, that's less and less true. This is going to get worse, fast. And since those resources are obviously not going to be made available, there's only one thing to say :
Get used to it.
- jellicle 13y ago> So ISPs are desperate. Their costs are spiralling out of control Isn't the cost to deliver a gigabyte of traffic something less than five cents, and decreasing?
- bradtgmurray 13y agoWhich means the profit margin is shrinking. It's not all about whether you're in the red or in the black, it's about how much profit you're making.
- AnthonyMouse 13y ago> Which means the profit margin is shrinking. Not if you judge by the telcos' profitability. The cost of transferring each bit is exponentially decreasing as network equipment tracks Moore's law. Their costs are going down, not up. What this is really about is damaging competitors to their cable TV operations. Wail about Netflix using a lot of bandwidth, never mind that the cost of providing that bandwidth is falling as fast as the demand for it is rising, and you can put on a good show for the regulators as to why you need to destroy Netflix and push everybody back onto U-verse and cable TV.
- kbenson 13y agoThat depends entirely on whether you see bandwidth costs as revenue or an expense. For many of these companies it's both, but generally they make most their money from consumers, and in that case it's an expense (to the degree it's got an ongoing price at all, given peering arrangements).
- twoodfin 13y agoThat's at best the average cost. You can also deliver a few terabytes for something like $3 in postage if you ship a tape, but that average cost would be deceptively low if you were trying to use that bandwidth to watch Netflix. The real cost is building the infrastructure to handle higher and higher peak bandwidth. Suppose you're Comcast with 20 million subscribers, half of whom are trying to watch 5Mbit Super-HD Netflix during prime time. That's 5 terabit, and even if you could agree with Netflix's providers to divide it up geographically, it's still an outrageous amount of bits to figure out how to ship.