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I predicted Apple's death some months after Steve Jobs died. Why? Two things (both of them decisions of the CEO): Plastic iPhones and the iPad mini (both prod

I predicted Apple's death some months after Steve Jobs died. Why? Two things (both of them decisions of the CEO): Plastic iPhones and the iPad mini (both products Jobs had resisted) and the more damning fact that for the first time a dividend of a serious size was paid (http://investor.apple.com/dividends.cfm http://investor.apple.com/dividends.cfm). Jobs was adamant about growing the warchest. His assumption was that if a stockholder thought his/her investment was better placed elsewhere, stock could be sold and reinvested. The act of paying a dividend states that the board thinks the investor can do better elsewhere with that money. Apple is no longer hungry, nor foolish.

coldtea 13y ago
>I predicted Apple's death some months after Steve Jobs died. Why? Two things (both of them decisions of the CEO): Plastic iPhones* You mean like the plastic Cube, G3, G4, Macbook and iPod's that preceded them during Jobs tenure? Only with even better and novel quality plastics used? >and the iPad mini (both products Jobs had resisted) Jobs probably knew about the mini all along, it takes more than a year to prototype and ship such a device. Besides, what jobs "resisted" or not is mere speculation, unless there are actual sources of him rejecting them. But even then, Jobs, according to witness accounts, changed ideas about lots of things he once rejected (e.g the iBooks). >and the more damning fact that for the first time a dividend of a serious size was paid. Jobs was adamant about growing the warchest. At a time when the warchest was still small. When Jobs died it rivalled the US economy. After some point it's silly to ammass even more money. >His assumption was that if a stockholder thought his/her investment was better placed elsewhere, stock could be sold and reinvested. The act of paying a dividend states that the board thinks the investor can do better elsewhere with that money. Only, whatever the board thinks, the invester CAN go elsewhere with that money, and that would have an effect on stock, morale etc. Better throw a bone and keep investors happy too.
fredsted 13y ago
Apple has a long history of doing a 180 and releasing products Jobs said publicly he didn't like...
- vacri 13y ago
  A hardware designer I used to work with noted that Jobs was against putting a radio in the iPod, and sure enough it appeared during a spell when he was off sick.
insaneirish 13y ago
The first iPad mini was introduced on 2012-10-23. Steve Jobs died on 2011-10-05. It's certain that Steve both knew about the iPad mini and supported its development. Apple's hardware development takes time and does not shift on a dime. "Apple is no longer hungry, nor foolish" is such a facile statement that means absolutely nothing.
- Beltiras 13y ago
  I was actually rephrasing my point, using the quote. Sheding money as dividends means Apple is not hungry. Having no visionary guide to quell the aversion of risk, Apple is no longer foolish. I'm a bit embarrassed having to explain it.
  - insaneirish 13y ago
    Their war chest will remain strategically as big as it needs to be. The amount of cash they have is ridiculous. And while an Icahn sized stock buy back is probably too much, their current buy back makes all the sense in the world. The stock is tremendously undervalued. You can't say it more eloquently than Warren Buffet: "If you could buy dollar bills for 80 cents, it's a very good thing to do." [1] [Disclosure: I am long AAPL.] 1: http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/03/04/apple-warren-buffett-cash/ http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/03/04/apple-warren-buffett-...
    - robmcm 13y ago
      Not to mention most of that cash is overseas, and it would be extremely costly to pull in onshore. They actually took a loan to pay out the dividends as it would be cheaper than paying the tax required to onshore their overseas monies. I expect if all that money was in the US they would be spending it on something else. There are only so many fancy stores with expensive glass you can build overseas.
coralreef 13y ago
If you've read Steve Jobs bio and know enough about him, you could surmise that he is "full of shit". He changes his mind, absorbs other people's ideas as his own and doesn't give them credit. The iPad Mini actually sells really well, and Steve was around to ship the hundred iterations of iPod (nano, shuffle, etc.)
- lutusp 13y ago
  > If you've read Steve Jobs bio and know enough about him, you could surmise that he is "full of shit". I knew Steve, I happen to agree, but de mortuis nil nisi bonum, as they say. :)
valleyer 13y ago
Jobs resisted plastic iPhones? Did they have to drug him to get him to introduce the iPhone 3G and 3GS?
- 72deluxe 13y ago
  I'm perhaps not a reliable source, but I will say Yes. Or perhaps No? There's a lot of plastic on a Mac. Look at the G3 desktop.
kendalk 13y ago
Apple has increased the number of MBAs since Jobs passed. See: http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/05/24/apple-tim-cook-ceo/ http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/05/24/apple-tim-cook-ceo/ This may indicate a corporate shift from a visionary outlook to a managing perspective. Someone on the inside would have better insight, but as an outsider I have to wonder.

coldtea 13y ago

>I predicted Apple's death some months after Steve Jobs died. Why? Two things (both of them decisions of the CEO): Plastic iPhones* You mean like the plastic Cube, G3, G4, Macbook and iPod's that preceded them during Jobs tenure? Only with even better and novel quality plastics used? >and the iPad mini (both products Jobs had resisted) Jobs probably knew about the mini all along, it takes more than a year to prototype and ship such a device. Besides, what jobs "resisted" or not is mere speculation, unless there are actual sources of him rejecting them. But even then, Jobs, according to witness accounts, changed ideas about lots of things he once rejected (e.g the iBooks). >and the more damning fact that for the first time a dividend of a serious size was paid. Jobs was adamant about growing the warchest. At a time when the warchest was still small. When Jobs died it rivalled the US economy. After some point it's silly to ammass even more money. >His assumption was that if a stockholder thought his/her investment was better placed elsewhere, stock could be sold and reinvested. The act of paying a dividend states that the board thinks the investor can do better elsewhere with that money. Only, whatever the board thinks, the invester CAN go elsewhere with that money, and that would have an effect on stock, morale etc. Better throw a bone and keep investors happy too.

fredsted 13y ago

Apple has a long history of doing a 180 and releasing products Jobs said publicly he didn't like...

vacri 13y ago
A hardware designer I used to work with noted that Jobs was against putting a radio in the iPod, and sure enough it appeared during a spell when he was off sick.

insaneirish 13y ago

The first iPad mini was introduced on 2012-10-23. Steve Jobs died on 2011-10-05. It's certain that Steve both knew about the iPad mini and supported its development. Apple's hardware development takes time and does not shift on a dime. "Apple is no longer hungry, nor foolish" is such a facile statement that means absolutely nothing.

Beltiras 13y ago
I was actually rephrasing my point, using the quote. Sheding money as dividends means Apple is not hungry. Having no visionary guide to quell the aversion of risk, Apple is no longer foolish. I'm a bit embarrassed having to explain it.
- insaneirish 13y ago
  Their war chest will remain strategically as big as it needs to be. The amount of cash they have is ridiculous. And while an Icahn sized stock buy back is probably too much, their current buy back makes all the sense in the world. The stock is tremendously undervalued. You can't say it more eloquently than Warren Buffet: "If you could buy dollar bills for 80 cents, it's a very good thing to do." [1] [Disclosure: I am long AAPL.] 1: http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/03/04/apple-warren-buffett-cash/ http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/03/04/apple-warren-buffett-...
  - robmcm 13y ago
    Not to mention most of that cash is overseas, and it would be extremely costly to pull in onshore. They actually took a loan to pay out the dividends as it would be cheaper than paying the tax required to onshore their overseas monies. I expect if all that money was in the US they would be spending it on something else. There are only so many fancy stores with expensive glass you can build overseas.

coralreef 13y ago

If you've read Steve Jobs bio and know enough about him, you could surmise that he is "full of shit". He changes his mind, absorbs other people's ideas as his own and doesn't give them credit. The iPad Mini actually sells really well, and Steve was around to ship the hundred iterations of iPod (nano, shuffle, etc.)

lutusp 13y ago
> If you've read Steve Jobs bio and know enough about him, you could surmise that he is "full of shit". I knew Steve, I happen to agree, but de mortuis nil nisi bonum, as they say. :)

valleyer 13y ago

Jobs resisted plastic iPhones? Did they have to drug him to get him to introduce the iPhone 3G and 3GS?

72deluxe 13y ago
I'm perhaps not a reliable source, but I will say Yes. Or perhaps No? There's a lot of plastic on a Mac. Look at the G3 desktop.

kendalk 13y ago

Apple has increased the number of MBAs since Jobs passed. See: http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/05/24/apple-tim-cook-ceo/ http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2012/05/24/apple-tim-cook-ceo/ This may indicate a corporate shift from a visionary outlook to a managing perspective. Someone on the inside would have better insight, but as an outsider I have to wonder.