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Its worth pointing out that this is a commentary on Kurzweil's particular view of technological singularity and how it might happen. Picking holes in his propos
by andyjohnson0 13y ago
Its worth pointing out that this is a commentary on Kurzweil's particular view of technological singularity and how it might happen. Picking holes in his proposed theory of mind for AIs, or his relating biological evolution with technological "progress", doesn't necessarily invalidate the general idea of exponentially accelerating technology.
Kurzweil is just one advocate. In fact, the idea [1] originated with Von Neumann in the 50s and was popularised by Vernor Vinge in the 90s, and its worth reading Vinge's paper "The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era" [2]. Bruce Sterling gave a interesting (and sceptical) talk [3] on the subject a while back.
For what its worth, I'm personally not convinced that we'll ever see a technological singularity because I don't think our culture generates technology that has the required attributes. Siri or Google Now don't need to be self-aware in order to do what they do, and there is no apparent commercial pressure to make them so. And since people build technology for human purposes, the presence of people who sleep, get bored, etc. will act as a drag on any tendency for runaway acceleration.
[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity#History_of_the_idea http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technological_singularity#Histo...
[2] http://www-rohan.sdsu.edu/faculty/vinge/misc/singularity.html http://www-rohan.sdsu.edu/faculty/vinge/misc/singularity.htm...
[3] http://longnow.org/seminars/02004/jun/11/the-singularity-your-future-as-a-black-hole/ http://longnow.org/seminars/02004/jun/11/the-singularity-you...
- hershel 13y agoI'm not sure why awareness is critical to a singularity.Requiring machine intelligence to have a similar consciousness to humans is like asking submarines to swim like a fish, and anyways computer already have self awareness(reflection in programming languages, and some robots who use reflection to learn how to optimize movement) - it's useful but doesn't seem critical AFAIK.
- andyjohnson0 13y agoGood point. The development of some kind of strong AI is often proposed as a catalyst for a technological singularity, and I was kind of following that lead. While I agree that self-awareness may not be needed, it is the only thing I can think of that would motivate an AI to enhance itself up the exponential curve. Relying oh humans to do this probably wouldn't work (past some initial pump-priming) as they tend to get distracted by other human-scale things. On the other hand, speculating about motivation in relation to an AI may be misleading anyway...
- hershel 13y agoThe general motivation behind the improvement of technologies is money and power given to those who control them. This could work for AI.