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Yes, the climate has fluctuated over geological time. Scientists know this. The difference is a) the rate at which it is warming and b) the fact that all livi

Yes, the climate has fluctuated over geological time. Scientists know this. The difference is a) the rate at which it is warming and b) the fact that all living things have adapted to a completely different climate. Climate change means mass famines and suffering, mass disruptions in commerce as whole industries implode, increased conflicts over dwindling resources, and mass extinction. It's a big deal. As far as agriculture, crops have evolved to certain soil types and climactic conditions. For examples, yield rates are going down for grains like wheat due to warmer nights, and the soil in Iowa in 2012 was too hot for seeding corn! It won't be a simple as moving the crops northward as the world gets hotter: soil types and ecological conditions are important for crops too. As far as mass famine and suffering: whole countries will be wiped off the map. That means refugees. It means fewer resources for more people. As far as more more violence associated with climate change: see dwindling resources and refugees. The US Department of Defense predicts that there will be armed conflicts over desertifying regions, especially Africa, which experience some of the worst climate change [1]. The USDOD is not made up of hippies. As far as mass extinction: it's already happening. Due to CO2, the ocean is 30% more acidic than it was in the 70s, and the shell fish industry on the wet coast is dying [2]. (Shellfish are particularly sensitive to ocean acidficiation.) This is just the beginning, and the great coral reefs of the world are dying too.[3] Basically, in my view, climate change is the single most consequential event in human history, and its scope will extend beyond humans too. The aggregate pain and suffering and the unimaginable loss will have a profound effect on the human psyche. If anyone reading this is concerned, I urge them to join 350.org [4], which is a climate change activist organization. 350 is named after NASA scientist James Hansen's estimate for the upper bound of acceptable CO2 PPM for humanity to thrive in. We passed 400PPM in 2012; humanity evolved in the upper 200's. James Hansen was head of NASA's Goddard Institute before he retired to organize against climate change full time [5]. 350.org's main initiative at the moment is divestment: getting major educational institutions to divest from fossil fuels as a social statement. To sign the petition for your school, go to http://gofossilfree.org/ http://gofossilfree.org/ [6] . The climate change movement desperately needs conscientious, scientifically aware individuals to stand up! [1] http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/09/science/earth/09climate.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/09/science/earth/09climate.ht... [2] http://apps.seattletimes.com/reports/sea-change/2013/sep/11/pacific-ocean-perilous-turn-overview/ http://apps.seattletimes.com/reports/sea-change/2013/sep/11/... [3] http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ocean-acidification-hits-great-barrier-reef/ http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ocean-acidificatio... [4] http://350.org http://350.org [5] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Hansen#Research_and_publications http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Hansen#Research_and_publi... [6] http://gofossilfree.org/ http://gofossilfree.org/

gavanwoolery 13y ago
I agree - climate change is a big deal. In fact, it doesn't even matter what our CO2 output is with respect to this problem -- even if we cut it off completely we still have to brace for the threats of climate change. Coming Ice Ages and warm periods could have potentially devastating effects, and we need to be ready. That said, I don't think the temperature will change significantly overnight so we have some time to prepare.
brc 13y ago
I appreciate that you're clearly a passionate activist, but your statements are alarmist and counterproductive. 'Whole countries wiped off the map'..'mass famine and suffering'...'yield rates going down'... These are unsupported by real world observations. I understand you wish to alarm people into joining your activist groups, and the more dramatic language, the better (I assume this has been A/B tested). But I think the dramatic language undermines your cause. The last report I saw was that grains harvest have recently broken records, despite a smaller overall percentage of land devoted to crops. This is mostly due to technology improvements in farming and grain types. Climate change is an ongoing process which humans have had to, and will have to, deal with. They will use ingenuity, technology and skill to deal with whatever arises. So you're free to say and believe whatever you want, but I don't think this was really the place for a long recruiting ad.
- ridicter 13y ago
  The highest point in the Maldives is 2.4M, and by 2100, nearly all inhabitable land will be underwater [1]. Likewise the average elevation of Bangladesh is a few feet. In effect, these countries will be wiped off. With tens of millions, if not hundreds of millions of refugees due to climate change, mass famine and suffering will result. That's just logic. If calling that situation "mass famine and suffering" is "alarmist" of me, what words would you prefer? As far as yield rates, climate change will decrease yield rates [2], but you're right that science will mitigate and address some of these issues. From my link: > Through the years of 1985 through 2011, wheat breeding programs boosted average wheat yields by 13 bushels per acre, or 0.51 bushels each year, for a total increase of 26%. A simulation also found that 1.8 degree Fahrenheit in projected mean temperature was found to decrease wheat yields by 10.64 bushels per acre or nearly 21%. Yes, humans will adapt. But in the process, hundreds of millions of people will suffer very gravely, and an innumerable # of species will go extinct in the ocean alone. I'm a huge tech guy, but it's silly to think technology will be able to address all of these issues. I stand by what I said. Conviction is important to move the ball forward. [1] www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/02/the-island-president-mohamed-nasheed_n_1383413.html [2] http://www.agriculture.com/crops/wheat/climate-chge-may-affect-wheat-yields_144-ar33557 http://www.agriculture.com/crops/wheat/climate-chge-may-affe...

gavanwoolery 13y ago

I agree - climate change is a big deal. In fact, it doesn't even matter what our CO2 output is with respect to this problem -- even if we cut it off completely we still have to brace for the threats of climate change. Coming Ice Ages and warm periods could have potentially devastating effects, and we need to be ready. That said, I don't think the temperature will change significantly overnight so we have some time to prepare.

brc 13y ago

I appreciate that you're clearly a passionate activist, but your statements are alarmist and counterproductive. 'Whole countries wiped off the map'..'mass famine and suffering'...'yield rates going down'... These are unsupported by real world observations. I understand you wish to alarm people into joining your activist groups, and the more dramatic language, the better (I assume this has been A/B tested). But I think the dramatic language undermines your cause. The last report I saw was that grains harvest have recently broken records, despite a smaller overall percentage of land devoted to crops. This is mostly due to technology improvements in farming and grain types. Climate change is an ongoing process which humans have had to, and will have to, deal with. They will use ingenuity, technology and skill to deal with whatever arises. So you're free to say and believe whatever you want, but I don't think this was really the place for a long recruiting ad.

ridicter 13y ago
The highest point in the Maldives is 2.4M, and by 2100, nearly all inhabitable land will be underwater [1]. Likewise the average elevation of Bangladesh is a few feet. In effect, these countries will be wiped off. With tens of millions, if not hundreds of millions of refugees due to climate change, mass famine and suffering will result. That's just logic. If calling that situation "mass famine and suffering" is "alarmist" of me, what words would you prefer? As far as yield rates, climate change will decrease yield rates [2], but you're right that science will mitigate and address some of these issues. From my link: > Through the years of 1985 through 2011, wheat breeding programs boosted average wheat yields by 13 bushels per acre, or 0.51 bushels each year, for a total increase of 26%. A simulation also found that 1.8 degree Fahrenheit in projected mean temperature was found to decrease wheat yields by 10.64 bushels per acre or nearly 21%. Yes, humans will adapt. But in the process, hundreds of millions of people will suffer very gravely, and an innumerable # of species will go extinct in the ocean alone. I'm a huge tech guy, but it's silly to think technology will be able to address all of these issues. I stand by what I said. Conviction is important to move the ball forward. [1] www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/02/the-island-president-mohamed-nasheed_n_1383413.html [2] http://www.agriculture.com/crops/wheat/climate-chge-may-affect-wheat-yields_144-ar33557 http://www.agriculture.com/crops/wheat/climate-chge-may-affe...