Indeed, the pure point-differential EV isn't enough. And beyond variance, there are mental factors involved: cascading micro-rewards from scoring, thinkability

Indeed, the pure point-differential EV isn't enough. And beyond variance, there are mental factors involved: cascading micro-rewards from scoring, thinkability of a win or loss, social dominance. I believe the NYTimes "4th Down Bot" actually performs a likelihood-of-winning analysis, as well.