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There seems to be a lot of people here who think that technology ate up all the jobs. Actually the largest number of jobs that have disappeared are from the ma

There seems to be a lot of people here who think that technology ate up all the jobs. Actually the largest number of jobs that have disappeared are from the manufacturing industry. There is a few reasons behind this. Trade agreements, heavy regulation of pollution and over demanding unions made it far cheaper to have China (and the rest of the world) manufacture everything for us. The other reason is that people in the US have changed. They don't want to do these jobs anymore. They are lazy and feel entitled to better jobs (though they aren't qualified for them). People would rather go an permanent disability or welfare. There are literally thousands of labor and manufacturing jobs sitting unfilled in the US today. Jobs that US citizens used to do. Couple this with the lost jobs that illegal Mexicans do today (jobs that "American's won't do"), and we have found 3/4 of these mysteriously disappearing jobs. This has nothing to do with Silicon Valley or technology in general. It is about policy and attitude. It is ridiculous to make claims that Technology has displaced 18-20% of American workers in the last 15-20 years. Why do I say 18-20%? Because the true unemployment today (by more traditional US counting) is currently at 30%. I'll, give you 10-12% for being in a bad economy - thus a loss of 18-20%. Show me how this is the fault of technology (and I don't mean from a sociological standpoint - that is a whole other argument).

Crito 13y ago
My understanding (I have seen this stated before on HN, but don't have a source at the moment), is that there is currently more manufacturing in America than ever before. It is just of the more mechanized sort, it does not require nearly as many unskilled or low-skilled laborers as it once did.
- mikeyouse 13y ago
  This chart (standardized to 1973 peak = 100) shows what you're saying: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrU http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrU We're doing 2.5x the manufacturing with 40% fewer employees.
  - goggles99 13y ago
    >We're doing 2.5x the manufacturing with 40% fewer employees. This is very misleading. The reason is because we largely only choose to keep the factories alive that we can almost fully automate. The goods that don't lend themselves to cheap, low maintenance automation are imported. This makes the most economic sense from a business owner's perspective. Free trade from sweat shops that have little or no regulations (environmental or other) or labor laws... yeah that is easy to compete with.
mikeyouse 13y ago
Everything you just wrote was ignorant and fairly abhorrent, but provides a pretty great caricature of the arrogance of Silicon Valley, so for that I applaud you. They don't want to do these jobs anymore. They are lazy and feel entitled to better jobs (though they aren't qualified for them). People would rather go an permanent disability or welfare. There are literally thousands of labor and manufacturing jobs sitting unfilled in the US today. Jobs that US citizens used to do. The US has lost 40% of its manufacturing jobs since 1980 (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrN http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrN). Even still, there are 245,000 manufacturing jobs currently open. However, over 11 million Americans are still unemployed (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrQ http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrQ). Couple this with the lost jobs that illegal Mexicans do today (jobs that "American's won't do"), and we have found 3/4 of these mysteriously disappearing jobs. Over 1 million illegal immigrants left the US in the aftermath of the financial crisis (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/31/us/31immig.html?partner=rssnyt http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/31/us/31immig.html?partner=rs...) and the number hasn't markedly increased in the last 6 years (http://www.pewhispanic.org/files/2013/09/PH-unauthorized-immigrants-1-01.png http://www.pewhispanic.org/files/2013/09/PH-unauthorized-imm...), yet we have persistently high unemployment and low labor-force participation in concert with baby boomers retiring. Why does the job market still have 8 million more unemployed than openings (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrT http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrT)? Because the true unemployment today (by more traditional US counting) is currently at 30%. There's no measure whatsoever that shows unemployment at 30%. The most inclusive rate (U6 - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrS http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrS) shows us at about 13%.
- goggles99 13y ago
  >The US has lost 40% of its manufacturing jobs since 1980 (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrN http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrN). Even still, there are 245,000 manufacturing jobs currently open. However, over 11 million Americans are still unemployed (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrQ http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrQ). Of course there is only 250,000 jobs open, It's a declining industry. You don't see the Sears, Home Depot, Dell, or HP (to name a few) doing much hiring while they are doing layoffs (contracting) do you? This was partially my point (thanks for backing it up with sources). My other point was that even when these jobs exist, people don't fill them. If we had 5 million of these same jobs open, how many people (besides legal and illegal immigrants) would fill them. We have lost 7m+ manufacturing jobs and have 11m unemployed. That is a big percentage. It is estimated that innovation cost only 20-25% of those jobs. The reasons that I mentioned before cost us the rest. Also consider that US consumption of manufactured goods since 1990 has tripled. Even if Technology and innovation cost us 50% of manufacturing jobs, the rise in consumption should have more than compensated for it. Don't forget the other jobs that are lost when a factory town loses it's factory. The barber, the local tax guy, the corner market ETC. They all go out of business and the employees and owners have been going on unemployment, then welfare, then disability for years. For every two lost factory jobs, there is at least one axillary job lost. >Over 1 million illegal immigrants left the US in the aftermath of the financial crisis (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/31/us/31immig.html?partner=rs... http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/31/us/31immig.html?partner=rs...) and the number hasn't markedly increased in the last 6 years (http://www.pewhispanic.org/files/2013/09/PH-unauthorized-imm... http://www.pewhispanic.org/files/2013/09/PH-unauthorized-imm...), yet we have persistently high unemployment and low labor-force participation in concert with baby boomers retiring. Why does the job market still have 8 million more unemployed than openings (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrT http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrT)? I am not sure what point you are trying to make here. There are still an estimated 12 million illegals here. More than half arriving while the US was riding the dotcom and housing bubbles (They came here for jobs while the perceived wealth was plentiful and no citizen "needed" these jobs anymore) >There's no measure whatsoever that shows unemployment at 30%. The most inclusive rate (U6 - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrS http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrS) shows us at about 13%. 30% is a bit of a stretch, I admit - but don't believe the Census Bureau cheaters. The numbers they give are all based on careful and changing criteria and technicalities. This sheds some light on what I am talking about. http://freedomoutpost.com/2013/11/real-unemployment-rate-30/ http://freedomoutpost.com/2013/11/real-unemployment-rate-30/ Now just imagine in govt size/jobs had not grown by 40%+ in the last decade. Unemployment would be way worse. Not sure how your post proves that my statements are ignorant and fairly abhorrent. You only go on to reinforce what I am saying.

Crito 13y ago

My understanding (I have seen this stated before on HN, but don't have a source at the moment), is that there is currently more manufacturing in America than ever before. It is just of the more mechanized sort, it does not require nearly as many unskilled or low-skilled laborers as it once did.

mikeyouse 13y ago
This chart (standardized to 1973 peak = 100) shows what you're saying: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrU http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrU We're doing 2.5x the manufacturing with 40% fewer employees.
- goggles99 13y ago
  >We're doing 2.5x the manufacturing with 40% fewer employees. This is very misleading. The reason is because we largely only choose to keep the factories alive that we can almost fully automate. The goods that don't lend themselves to cheap, low maintenance automation are imported. This makes the most economic sense from a business owner's perspective. Free trade from sweat shops that have little or no regulations (environmental or other) or labor laws... yeah that is easy to compete with.

mikeyouse 13y ago

Everything you just wrote was ignorant and fairly abhorrent, but provides a pretty great caricature of the arrogance of Silicon Valley, so for that I applaud you. They don't want to do these jobs anymore. They are lazy and feel entitled to better jobs (though they aren't qualified for them). People would rather go an permanent disability or welfare. There are literally thousands of labor and manufacturing jobs sitting unfilled in the US today. Jobs that US citizens used to do. The US has lost 40% of its manufacturing jobs since 1980 (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrN http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrN). Even still, there are 245,000 manufacturing jobs currently open. However, over 11 million Americans are still unemployed (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrQ http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrQ). Couple this with the lost jobs that illegal Mexicans do today (jobs that "American's won't do"), and we have found 3/4 of these mysteriously disappearing jobs. Over 1 million illegal immigrants left the US in the aftermath of the financial crisis (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/31/us/31immig.html?partner=rssnyt http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/31/us/31immig.html?partner=rs...) and the number hasn't markedly increased in the last 6 years (http://www.pewhispanic.org/files/2013/09/PH-unauthorized-immigrants-1-01.png http://www.pewhispanic.org/files/2013/09/PH-unauthorized-imm...), yet we have persistently high unemployment and low labor-force participation in concert with baby boomers retiring. Why does the job market still have 8 million more unemployed than openings (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrT http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrT)? Because the true unemployment today (by more traditional US counting) is currently at 30%. There's no measure whatsoever that shows unemployment at 30%. The most inclusive rate (U6 - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrS http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrS) shows us at about 13%.

goggles99 13y ago
>The US has lost 40% of its manufacturing jobs since 1980 (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrN http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrN). Even still, there are 245,000 manufacturing jobs currently open. However, over 11 million Americans are still unemployed (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrQ http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrQ). Of course there is only 250,000 jobs open, It's a declining industry. You don't see the Sears, Home Depot, Dell, or HP (to name a few) doing much hiring while they are doing layoffs (contracting) do you? This was partially my point (thanks for backing it up with sources). My other point was that even when these jobs exist, people don't fill them. If we had 5 million of these same jobs open, how many people (besides legal and illegal immigrants) would fill them. We have lost 7m+ manufacturing jobs and have 11m unemployed. That is a big percentage. It is estimated that innovation cost only 20-25% of those jobs. The reasons that I mentioned before cost us the rest. Also consider that US consumption of manufactured goods since 1990 has tripled. Even if Technology and innovation cost us 50% of manufacturing jobs, the rise in consumption should have more than compensated for it. Don't forget the other jobs that are lost when a factory town loses it's factory. The barber, the local tax guy, the corner market ETC. They all go out of business and the employees and owners have been going on unemployment, then welfare, then disability for years. For every two lost factory jobs, there is at least one axillary job lost. >Over 1 million illegal immigrants left the US in the aftermath of the financial crisis (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/31/us/31immig.html?partner=rs... http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/31/us/31immig.html?partner=rs...) and the number hasn't markedly increased in the last 6 years (http://www.pewhispanic.org/files/2013/09/PH-unauthorized-imm... http://www.pewhispanic.org/files/2013/09/PH-unauthorized-imm...), yet we have persistently high unemployment and low labor-force participation in concert with baby boomers retiring. Why does the job market still have 8 million more unemployed than openings (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrT http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrT)? I am not sure what point you are trying to make here. There are still an estimated 12 million illegals here. More than half arriving while the US was riding the dotcom and housing bubbles (They came here for jobs while the perceived wealth was plentiful and no citizen "needed" these jobs anymore) >There's no measure whatsoever that shows unemployment at 30%. The most inclusive rate (U6 - http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrS http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=rrS) shows us at about 13%. 30% is a bit of a stretch, I admit - but don't believe the Census Bureau cheaters. The numbers they give are all based on careful and changing criteria and technicalities. This sheds some light on what I am talking about. http://freedomoutpost.com/2013/11/real-unemployment-rate-30/ http://freedomoutpost.com/2013/11/real-unemployment-rate-30/ Now just imagine in govt size/jobs had not grown by 40%+ in the last decade. Unemployment would be way worse. Not sure how your post proves that my statements are ignorant and fairly abhorrent. You only go on to reinforce what I am saying.