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Buffett won't have to pay a billion dollars. As he mentions in one of the articles linked, at the end: "If you get to the Final Four with a perfect bracket, I

• marquis 13y ago
  Something like offering $500,000,000 up front? There's no question I'd take the $25 mil offer, put it in a trust and seriously mess with the world (in a nice way).
• soup10 13y ago
  Haha, that would be so awesome. Presumably buffet is betting that you're going to take a lesser cash prize to avoid the risk of losing in the final 4. But at that point, if the buyout offer is huge but you are still +ev to stay in, you can probably turn the tables on him and get a big insurance company or investment bank(or a conglomerate of them) that has the bankroll to buy you out and see the matches play out.
  • euphemize 13y ago
    Indeed. I have trouble imagining many people turning down whatever his offer would be at the final four though.
• sireat 13y ago
  I wonder how much would he offer if you get to Final Four. If you get to Final Four as an individual without FU money, then Buffet would probably offer a 50 million single payment and you would probably take it as it would still be a life changing event (see Kahneman's research). However, if a syndicate such as the one in the link gets to the Final Four then Buffet would probably have to offer something closer to $125 million.