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That's a graph of the past... I really don't feel like I'm asking for something crazy. Just like from 2013-2023 the average temp will be X. Or if that is too s

That's a graph of the past... I really don't feel like I'm asking for something crazy. Just like from 2013-2023 the average temp will be X. Or if that is too short, from 2013-2050 the average temp will by Y. For a theory that claims to predict the future climate, I'm having a hard time getting a concrete prediction of the future climate. Or could it be that the science is still evolving on this incredibly complex system...

acqq 13y ago
The climate research is not the weather forecasting. I wanted to give you an idea how litle sense has to predict for any particular year. The Earth doesn't function that way. The trend however is absolutely predictable. For the future, look here (the Figure SPM.10 from the last IPCC report, PDF linked later): http://www.easterbrook.ca/steve/2013/10/what-does-the-new-ipcc-report-say-about-climate-change/ http://www.easterbrook.ca/steve/2013/10/what-does-the-new-ip... What will happen depends only on our fossil fuel consumption. The last IPCC reports does predictions for different "Representative Concentration Pathways": Simulations were performed with prescribed CO2 concentrations reaching 421 ppm (RCP2.6), 538 ppm (RCP4.5), 670 ppm (RCP6.0), and 936 ppm (RCP 8.5) by the year 2100. It you know we're already over 400 ppm, drop the RCP2.6 (dark blue) curve, since to achieve it we have to soon stop consuming fossil fuels (Figure 12.46). By 2100 it will be between 1.5 and 4 degrees warmer than now, depending on how much we're ready to cut our fossil fuels use. And that is immense increase. We already observe significant differences between now and hundred years ago everywhere, which was only 0.85 deg C difference! The "short" report (PDF) is: http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGI_AR5_SPM_brochure.pdf http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGI_AR5_SPM_... The full report is huge so I link the top page: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/ http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/ "Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis"

acqq 13y ago

The climate research is not the weather forecasting. I wanted to give you an idea how litle sense has to predict for any particular year. The Earth doesn't function that way. The trend however is absolutely predictable. For the future, look here (the Figure SPM.10 from the last IPCC report, PDF linked later): http://www.easterbrook.ca/steve/2013/10/what-does-the-new-ipcc-report-say-about-climate-change/ http://www.easterbrook.ca/steve/2013/10/what-does-the-new-ip... What will happen depends only on our fossil fuel consumption. The last IPCC reports does predictions for different "Representative Concentration Pathways": Simulations were performed with prescribed CO2 concentrations reaching 421 ppm (RCP2.6), 538 ppm (RCP4.5), 670 ppm (RCP6.0), and 936 ppm (RCP 8.5) by the year 2100. It you know we're already over 400 ppm, drop the RCP2.6 (dark blue) curve, since to achieve it we have to soon stop consuming fossil fuels (Figure 12.46). By 2100 it will be between 1.5 and 4 degrees warmer than now, depending on how much we're ready to cut our fossil fuels use. And that is immense increase. We already observe significant differences between now and hundred years ago everywhere, which was only 0.85 deg C difference! The "short" report (PDF) is: http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGI_AR5_SPM_brochure.pdf http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGI_AR5_SPM_... The full report is huge so I link the top page: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/ http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/ "Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis"