3 ms·

Unemployment will likely go higher from here. I'll give you that as history has shown that it is likely for unemployment to rise even after the worst is over,

Unemployment will likely go higher from here. I'll give you that as history has shown that it is likely for unemployment to rise even after the worst is over, but we're certainly on the upswing now. I wouldn't be surprised if the NBER comes out sometime later this year and says that the recession officially ended in the Q2.

moe 17y ago
I'll give you that as history has shown that it is likely for unemployment to rise even after the worst is over, but we're certainly on the upswing now. This constant focus on "jobs" worries me quite bit. It's not just you but politicians worldwide seem to operate that way. More jobs in the short term trump stability in the longterm. This results in painfully wrong tradeoffs being made left and right (billions pumped into dead auto-companies) which only drives up the bill that someone has to pay later. IMHO jobs are not the main metric we should be looking at anymore. At least not without differentiation. I'm not from the US but as I'm told many americans already need multiple jobs to stay afloat. Over here in germany we have millions of people in subsidized "jobs" that don't quite deserve to be called that (mostly to keep them out of the unemployment statistics, afaik). All of that is is probably looking even less rosy in other countries. I think much more interesting topics would be the overall concentration of wealth (e.g. along the lines of an improved gini coefficient) and the size of the "middle class" which seems to be shrinking everywhere. These are ofcourse just examples but I think this is the area where we should be looking for metrics, because the gap between "low-skilled" and "high-skilled" (or low/high income, low/high education) workers is widening so rapidly.
- BrentRitterbeck 17y ago
  That was my point exactly. I was merely giving the previous post a concession. There are numerous other signs that the economy is now on the upswing. Not all lights are green right now, but we are certainly in a better position than we were at the turn of the year.

moe 17y ago

I'll give you that as history has shown that it is likely for unemployment to rise even after the worst is over, but we're certainly on the upswing now. This constant focus on "jobs" worries me quite bit. It's not just you but politicians worldwide seem to operate that way. More jobs in the short term trump stability in the longterm. This results in painfully wrong tradeoffs being made left and right (billions pumped into dead auto-companies) which only drives up the bill that someone has to pay later. IMHO jobs are not the main metric we should be looking at anymore. At least not without differentiation. I'm not from the US but as I'm told many americans already need multiple jobs to stay afloat. Over here in germany we have millions of people in subsidized "jobs" that don't quite deserve to be called that (mostly to keep them out of the unemployment statistics, afaik). All of that is is probably looking even less rosy in other countries. I think much more interesting topics would be the overall concentration of wealth (e.g. along the lines of an improved gini coefficient) and the size of the "middle class" which seems to be shrinking everywhere. These are ofcourse just examples but I think this is the area where we should be looking for metrics, because the gap between "low-skilled" and "high-skilled" (or low/high income, low/high education) workers is widening so rapidly.

BrentRitterbeck 17y ago
That was my point exactly. I was merely giving the previous post a concession. There are numerous other signs that the economy is now on the upswing. Not all lights are green right now, but we are certainly in a better position than we were at the turn of the year.