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just because your experience was 1/10000 doesnt mean your true risk is 1/10000 . You could have tossed 9999 heads and 1 tails, there's still a 50/50 chance on
by maerF0x0 13y ago
just because your experience was 1/10000 doesnt mean your true risk is 1/10000 . You could have tossed 9999 heads and 1 tails, there's still a 50/50 chance on the coin... Similarly you could be overstating your risk..
- riquito 13y agoThe probability to get 9999 heads and 1 tail is so small that you have more chance of finding an unicorn in a forest. I'd toss that coin :-P
- maerF0x0 13y agoSo you're saying unicorns exist? Because that coin toss could happen. Not sure if finding a unicorn in a forest could happen, unless unicorns exist ;)
- riquito 13y agoYes, I say that it's more likely to find an unicorn somewhere on Earth (an undiscovered species) than to get that toss sequence. We say that an event is impossible for _way_ less probabilities (I could be hit by a cosmic radiation and start to grow a third arm, but it's unlikely enough to say that it's impossible).