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I believe it. Facebook doesn't have anything going for it at this point other than the fact that everyone is on it. The problem is that it's becoming increasing

I believe it. Facebook doesn't have anything going for it at this point other than the fact that everyone is on it. The problem is that it's becoming increasingly less interesting, to the point where it will be no more interesting than the Yellow Pages - everyone is in there, but nobody cares about opening it up anymore, except for once a year perhaps. At that point Facebook is dead, and it doesn't matter if people actually press that non-delete Delete button, or they stop logging in to it.

alkonaut 13y ago
> Facebook doesn't have anything going for it at this point other than the fact that everyone is on it. Which is pretty huge. Even if I never shared anything and never casually browsed facebook, I still would not stop using it quite regularly, say a few times per week, for things like event planning, direct messaging people (Who keeps a list of friends' email addresses?). So the question then becomes: if facebook is slowly turned into a contact book and event planner, does that mean the end of facebook? Does facebook require billions of people hitting millions of like buttons and farming animals on their walls in order to live?
- Zimahl 13y ago
  > So the question then becomes: if facebook is slowly turned into a contact book and event planner, does that mean the end of facebook? Does facebook require billions of people hitting millions of like buttons and farming animals on their walls in order to live? It depends what you mean by 'end' but if this is all people do once there in the future, absolutely. There won't be enough daily active users to support advertising, which leads to a downward spiral. People may keep their accounts but Facebook's data (like any social network) is highly temporal - once you stop liking stuff they become more and more out of touch with ad targeting.
  - alkonaut 13y ago
    Exactly, but the reduced revenue is likely proportional to reduced operating costs. It will be the white-dwarf end of Facebook, but it would never die until someone creates a feasible replacement. Even at a fraction of its current size, being "just" everyone's contact book for one billion users is still quite a big deal. So it's a definition of when Facebook is "dead" or "gone". It will never go away entirely.
stormcrowsx 13y ago
People are still logging in everyday. Maybe not you, but I know plenty of people who belong to groups that log in everyday to see what the group is up to. As long as they can monetize that, it will always be around. People with children will log on for many many more years to upload pictures of their children to share with their parents. Those parents aren't going to move to another social network. In their eyes Facebook works great why sign up for a Twitter account, and Instagram account, and a Vine account etc.
- r00fus 13y ago
  Are they monetizing it adequately, though. FB being decimated by 2017 is ridiculous. However, it could be sidelined as Zuck and crowd can't find a way to make increasing dollars out of their userbase without driving them off.
  - dragonwriter 13y ago
    > FB being decimated by 2017 is ridiculous. Not really, but FB losing 80% of its users by then -- which is 8 times greater reduction than decimation would be -- is.
    - blisterpeanuts 13y ago
      Doesn't "decimation" mean FB would be left with only 10% of its present user base? 90% versus 80%, not that big a difference, really. In any event, I don't believe it will happen; there's no credible alternative on the horizon, at least not yet. Google Plus doesn't seem to be taking over, and who else is there?
      - dragonwriter 13y ago
        > Doesn't "decimation" mean FB would be left with only 10% of its present user base? No, the literal meaning is removal of one-tenth. [1] [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decimation_(Roman_army) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decimation_(Roman_army)

alkonaut 13y ago

> Facebook doesn't have anything going for it at this point other than the fact that everyone is on it. Which is pretty huge. Even if I never shared anything and never casually browsed facebook, I still would not stop using it quite regularly, say a few times per week, for things like event planning, direct messaging people (Who keeps a list of friends' email addresses?). So the question then becomes: if facebook is slowly turned into a contact book and event planner, does that mean the end of facebook? Does facebook require billions of people hitting millions of like buttons and farming animals on their walls in order to live?

Zimahl 13y ago
> So the question then becomes: if facebook is slowly turned into a contact book and event planner, does that mean the end of facebook? Does facebook require billions of people hitting millions of like buttons and farming animals on their walls in order to live? It depends what you mean by 'end' but if this is all people do once there in the future, absolutely. There won't be enough daily active users to support advertising, which leads to a downward spiral. People may keep their accounts but Facebook's data (like any social network) is highly temporal - once you stop liking stuff they become more and more out of touch with ad targeting.
- alkonaut 13y ago
  Exactly, but the reduced revenue is likely proportional to reduced operating costs. It will be the white-dwarf end of Facebook, but it would never die until someone creates a feasible replacement. Even at a fraction of its current size, being "just" everyone's contact book for one billion users is still quite a big deal. So it's a definition of when Facebook is "dead" or "gone". It will never go away entirely.

stormcrowsx 13y ago

People are still logging in everyday. Maybe not you, but I know plenty of people who belong to groups that log in everyday to see what the group is up to. As long as they can monetize that, it will always be around. People with children will log on for many many more years to upload pictures of their children to share with their parents. Those parents aren't going to move to another social network. In their eyes Facebook works great why sign up for a Twitter account, and Instagram account, and a Vine account etc.

r00fus 13y ago
Are they monetizing it adequately, though. FB being decimated by 2017 is ridiculous. However, it could be sidelined as Zuck and crowd can't find a way to make increasing dollars out of their userbase without driving them off.
- dragonwriter 13y ago
  > FB being decimated by 2017 is ridiculous. Not really, but FB losing 80% of its users by then -- which is 8 times greater reduction than decimation would be -- is.
  - blisterpeanuts 13y ago
    Doesn't "decimation" mean FB would be left with only 10% of its present user base? 90% versus 80%, not that big a difference, really. In any event, I don't believe it will happen; there's no credible alternative on the horizon, at least not yet. Google Plus doesn't seem to be taking over, and who else is there?
    - dragonwriter 13y ago
      > Doesn't "decimation" mean FB would be left with only 10% of its present user base? No, the literal meaning is removal of one-tenth. [1] [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decimation_(Roman_army) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decimation_(Roman_army)