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They don't actually discuss the third myth from the letter, which I thought was the most fascinating and counterintuitive. The letter contains an embedded vide
by hamburglar 13y ago
They don't actually discuss the third myth from the letter, which I thought was the most fascinating and counterintuitive. The letter contains an embedded video[1] with a great explanation from Hans Rosling, but here's the gist as I see it:
- The myth is "Saving lives leads to overpopulation"
- Poor countries where kids are dying have high birthrates
- The reason they have high birthrates is actually because children die at a high rate
- Countries where infant mortality drops actually do see decreases in birthrates
- The countries with the lowest infant mortality rates actually see birthrates at or below replacement rate.
- If you can take the 2 billion people with high infant mortality rates (and high birth rates) and bring them up to par with wealthier countries' mortality rates, we could actually stop population growth and achieve steady state.
- The longer it takes to get those mortality rates down, the larger the steady state population will be.
There are some big assumptions in there, and I'm not totally sure I believe them all, but it's fascinating and even makes sense that keeping babies alive could ultimately reduce the population on earth.
[1] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkSO9pOVpRM http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkSO9pOVpRM