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Paging the Reverend Thomas Bayes... Seriously it doesn't work like that. The probability of me being an insect is 0 - in fact the probability of me being anybo

by frossie 17y ago

Paging the Reverend Thomas Bayes... Seriously it doesn't work like that. The probability of me being an insect is 0 - in fact the probability of me being anybody else besides me is 0, unless you are in metaphysical territory (eg. reincarnation), in which case please stop using Gaussian probability theory as its warranty only covers use in the physical world.

amichail 17y ago
The probability that you are human given that you are human is obviously 1. That's not what I am asking. Is there some plausible (possibly metaphysical) explanation besides that you were extremely lucky?
- tdoggette 17y ago
  There is no "me" that ever had a non-one probability of being human. There is no great lottery from which each entity is chosen to be one thing or another.
- nostrademons 17y ago
  If you weren't extremely lucky, you wouldn't be asking the question.
  - amichail 17y ago
    Why does it matter whether an entity is capable of asking this question? What matters is whether it has consciousness/self-awareness.
- Retric 17y ago
  Think of it this way, if you and 100 million other people all buy a lottery ticket and you win the jackpot you might ask why me? Yet, assume the odds someone would win was 90%, and the odds that the winner would ask the question was also 90%. Now what's unusual about the person asking the question? nothing And what's unusual about someone winning? nothing
- mbrubeck 17y ago
  It's even more likely that you are a rock. Or a star. Or an electron. Except it's not, because you can't be an electron, if "you" means "someone contemplating this question" (or any other non-trivial, relevant meaning of "you").
  - amichail 17y ago
    You don't need an entity that is capable of contemplating this question to be conscious/self-aware.
- frossie 17y ago
  plausible (possibly metaphysical) Sorry, you just blew my fuse by using plausible and metaphysical in the same sentence. Maybe somebody else can help you with that. To repeat, luck has nothing to do with it because there is no consciousness allocating lottery. It's like saying "the universe is 99.9[...]9% empty space, ain't I lucky to be on a planet?". Luck does not apply, as the chance of you being born in empty space is exactly 0.

by frossie 17y ago

amichail 17y ago

The probability that you are human given that you are human is obviously 1. That's not what I am asking. Is there some plausible (possibly metaphysical) explanation besides that you were extremely lucky?

tdoggette 17y ago
There is no "me" that ever had a non-one probability of being human. There is no great lottery from which each entity is chosen to be one thing or another.
nostrademons 17y ago
If you weren't extremely lucky, you wouldn't be asking the question.
- amichail 17y ago
  Why does it matter whether an entity is capable of asking this question? What matters is whether it has consciousness/self-awareness.
Retric 17y ago
Think of it this way, if you and 100 million other people all buy a lottery ticket and you win the jackpot you might ask why me? Yet, assume the odds someone would win was 90%, and the odds that the winner would ask the question was also 90%. Now what's unusual about the person asking the question? nothing And what's unusual about someone winning? nothing
mbrubeck 17y ago
It's even more likely that you are a rock. Or a star. Or an electron. Except it's not, because you can't be an electron, if "you" means "someone contemplating this question" (or any other non-trivial, relevant meaning of "you").
- amichail 17y ago
  You don't need an entity that is capable of contemplating this question to be conscious/self-aware.
frossie 17y ago
plausible (possibly metaphysical) Sorry, you just blew my fuse by using plausible and metaphysical in the same sentence. Maybe somebody else can help you with that. To repeat, luck has nothing to do with it because there is no consciousness allocating lottery. It's like saying "the universe is 99.9[...]9% empty space, ain't I lucky to be on a planet?". Luck does not apply, as the chance of you being born in empty space is exactly 0.