Also, for anyone interested, one of my favourite talks is about a study of political forecasters and their accurancy over the years, seen from this perspective:

Also, for anyone interested, one of my favourite talks is about a study of political forecasters and their accurancy over the years, seen from this perspective: (the video is paywalled, but the audio is free): http://longnow.org/seminars/02007/jan/26/why-foxes-are-better-forecasters-than-hedgehogs/ http://longnow.org/seminars/02007/jan/26/why-foxes-are-bette...