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I think I have read too much Taleb to be able to agree.
by badman_ting 13y ago
I think I have read too much Taleb to be able to agree.
- nickff 13y agoTaleb's writings do not contradict this article, as the experts are often right; (my take on) Taleb's criticism of experts is that being right most of the time is not good enough when there are long-tailed distributions.
- badman_ting 13y agoIn "The Black Swan" he does talk about the importance of experts' error rate, but the larger point is that only fields which do not rely on prediction of the future, or "do not move" as he phrases it, can have true experts. Medicine, hard science, games, accounting, agricultural stuff.
- bayesianhorse 13y agoTaleb strikes me as entirely too prone to refer to himself as an expert. For that matter I can barely stand references to ancient literature when discussing an extremely modern subject which should be understood through mathmatics, not conjecture, however fancy the latter was constructed.