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I agree with the gist of the article, but it I noticed it didn't mention the research that some classes of experts actually make worse predictions than a class
by kenjackson 13y ago
I agree with the gist of the article, but it I noticed it didn't mention the research that some classes of experts actually make worse predictions than a class of generalists... I think referred to as wolves and foxes, but I can't remember.
- secretasiandan 13y agoI think you're thinking of Isaiah Berlin's The Hedgehog and the Fox: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hedgehog_and_the_Fox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hedgehog_and_the_Fox If you like that, you might also like the book Expert Political Judgement by Philip Tetlock which uses the Hedgehog and Fox metaphor to analyze people's political judgements. https://duckduckgo.com/?q=expert+political+judgement https://duckduckgo.com/?q=expert+political+judgement
- badsock 13y agoAlso, for anyone interested, one of my favourite talks is about a study of political forecasters and their accurancy over the years, seen from this perspective: (the video is paywalled, but the audio is free): http://longnow.org/seminars/02007/jan/26/why-foxes-are-better-forecasters-than-hedgehogs/ http://longnow.org/seminars/02007/jan/26/why-foxes-are-bette...