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You can only judge these people if you have a big list of all the predictions that they make. Highlighting the ones that came true is of no use if they made 100

You can only judge these people if you have a big list of all the predictions that they make. Highlighting the ones that came true is of no use if they made 1000s of other predictions that turned out to be rubbish. Also, beware of all the predictions that don't have good timelines. Predicting a stock market crash is easy; there's bound to be one at some point or other. Predicting when the next crash might be is much much harder.

mixedbit 13y ago
Predicting when the next crash will be is also easy. Once you have hundreds of "experts" doing it, someone will certainly guess correctly.
300bps 13y ago
Here's a list of some of his predictions for 2009 along with commentary on whether they came true or not: http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2012/03/20/ray-kurzweils-predictions-for-2009-were-mostly-inaccurate/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2012/03/20/ray-kurzwei...
JamesArgo 13y ago
You may find this interesting: http://lesswrong.com/lw/diz/kurzweils_predictions_good_accuracy_poor/ http://lesswrong.com/lw/diz/kurzweils_predictions_good_accur...
pessimizer 13y ago
>Predicting when the next crash might be is much much harder. Predicting when is just a stunt. Predicting why is more important. Predicting why can end up giving you when if the event is contingent on a few things falling into place that are being observed falling into place.
- joosters 13y ago
  Rubbish, imo. We can't agree on the why of past crashes, let alone make good predictions about future ones. How can such a prediction ever be proved right or wrong?
kamaal 13y ago
>>Highlighting the ones that came true is of no use if they made 1000s of other predictions that turned out to be rubbish. Well that's the whole point in 'predictions'. They are supposed to be a large number of them which have to come false. Predictions are a way of extrapolating the future based on current trends. They are bound to be wrong. And they are also bound to be true. Anything else and we would be asking oracles gazing in crystal balls to narrate us the future.

mixedbit 13y ago

Predicting when the next crash will be is also easy. Once you have hundreds of "experts" doing it, someone will certainly guess correctly.

300bps 13y ago

Here's a list of some of his predictions for 2009 along with commentary on whether they came true or not: http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2012/03/20/ray-kurzweils-predictions-for-2009-were-mostly-inaccurate/ http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexknapp/2012/03/20/ray-kurzwei...

JamesArgo 13y ago

You may find this interesting: http://lesswrong.com/lw/diz/kurzweils_predictions_good_accuracy_poor/ http://lesswrong.com/lw/diz/kurzweils_predictions_good_accur...

pessimizer 13y ago

>Predicting when the next crash might be is much much harder. Predicting when is just a stunt. Predicting why is more important. Predicting why can end up giving you when if the event is contingent on a few things falling into place that are being observed falling into place.

joosters 13y ago
Rubbish, imo. We can't agree on the why of past crashes, let alone make good predictions about future ones. How can such a prediction ever be proved right or wrong?

kamaal 13y ago

>>Highlighting the ones that came true is of no use if they made 1000s of other predictions that turned out to be rubbish. Well that's the whole point in 'predictions'. They are supposed to be a large number of them which have to come false. Predictions are a way of extrapolating the future based on current trends. They are bound to be wrong. And they are also bound to be true. Anything else and we would be asking oracles gazing in crystal balls to narrate us the future.