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China is powerful, but is it powerful enough to beat India, Japan and the phillipines at once? Especially considering that USA have a defence agreement with Ja

by yxhuvud 13y ago

China is powerful, but is it powerful enough to beat India, Japan and the phillipines at once? Especially considering that USA have a defence agreement with Japan.

ctdonath 13y ago
The concern is that aggressive/imperial-minded political leaders may conclude the USA's current leader is disinterested in fulfilling defense agreements with several nations. ETA: With US presidential terms limited as they are, there is a fast-dwindling window of opportunity for others to take advantage of this timidity. Such an action would take about a year, and would preferably be completed well before a more militaristic President is elected.
- ihsw 13y ago
  And they wouldn't be wrong -- the US is quite timid towards China, despite all of the saber rattling in American politics. Methinks China would prefer this timidity to be obvious to everybody rather than quietly hidden among diplomatic undertones -- very devious indeed, and quite dangerous because there are quite a few on both sides that would like to see an escalation of tension.
repsilat 13y ago
Japan has a hell of a military (ahem, "self-defense force), but the others... India has some serious logistical problems, especially on its Chinese border, and it's having a hard time fixing it. The Chinese have been pushing into Arunchal Pradesh with impunity because they have the supporting infrastructure on their side of the border that India doesn't. (India also has nukes, but we're a long way from that mattering.) The Philippines sadly has little military capability to speak of. Other countries are effectively donating hardware to them (ships, mostly), but at the moment their best defense lies in their political ties, and the best help they can offer is to serve as a staging point for other nations' forces. Korea is a funny one, though. They're friendly to the Filipinos (and Americans), but the people there share a lot of the anti-Japanese sentiment seen in China. I think the scope of any role they play will be pretty path dependant, mostly hinging on where things flare up first.

by yxhuvud 13y ago

China is powerful, but is it powerful enough to beat India, Japan and the phillipines at once? Especially considering that USA have a defence agreement with Japan.

ctdonath 13y ago

The concern is that aggressive/imperial-minded political leaders may conclude the USA's current leader is disinterested in fulfilling defense agreements with several nations. ETA: With US presidential terms limited as they are, there is a fast-dwindling window of opportunity for others to take advantage of this timidity. Such an action would take about a year, and would preferably be completed well before a more militaristic President is elected.

ihsw 13y ago
And they wouldn't be wrong -- the US is quite timid towards China, despite all of the saber rattling in American politics. Methinks China would prefer this timidity to be obvious to everybody rather than quietly hidden among diplomatic undertones -- very devious indeed, and quite dangerous because there are quite a few on both sides that would like to see an escalation of tension.

repsilat 13y ago

Japan has a hell of a military (ahem, "self-defense force), but the others... India has some serious logistical problems, especially on its Chinese border, and it's having a hard time fixing it. The Chinese have been pushing into Arunchal Pradesh with impunity because they have the supporting infrastructure on their side of the border that India doesn't. (India also has nukes, but we're a long way from that mattering.) The Philippines sadly has little military capability to speak of. Other countries are effectively donating hardware to them (ships, mostly), but at the moment their best defense lies in their political ties, and the best help they can offer is to serve as a staging point for other nations' forces. Korea is a funny one, though. They're friendly to the Filipinos (and Americans), but the people there share a lot of the anti-Japanese sentiment seen in China. I think the scope of any role they play will be pretty path dependant, mostly hinging on where things flare up first.