6 ms·

Holy crap. On the other hand, China can do pretty much whatever it wants. Even if China was actively crazy all the time, it's doubtful anyone would be willing o

by Udo 13y ago

Holy crap. On the other hand, China can do pretty much whatever it wants. Even if China was actively crazy all the time, it's doubtful anyone would be willing or able to stop them. Which, incidentally, might be a theory they are testing on the world right now. For everyone involved, I sincerely hope the Philippines does the right thing and avoids a hopeless military standoff, any outcome of which will only strengthen China further in a myriad ways.

ridruejo 13y ago
"Peace in our time" they used to say
- arethuza 13y ago
  Nitpick: You are probably thinking of Chamberlain saying "Peace for our time" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_for_our_time http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_for_our_time
  - ridruejo 13y ago
    Correct
topynate 13y ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thitu_Island https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thitu_Island It's an inhabited island with a military base and an airstrip; I don't see the Philippines just walking away. Moreover, both Taiwan and Vietnam also have claims on the island, not to mention that the US has no desire to see any part of the Spratlys leave its sphere of influence. China might like to confine the repercussions of a military capture of the island, but that relies on intimidating all the countries I just mentioned, which I do not believe it can do.
- SuperChihuahua 13y ago
  The airstrip is larger than the island: https://maps.google.com/maps?q=Thitu+Island&hl=sv&geocode=FQGpqAAdOdrPBg&hnear=Thitu+Island&t=h&z=16 https://maps.google.com/maps?q=Thitu+Island&hl=sv&geocode=FQ...
arethuza 13y ago
Intentionally acting crazy has actually been used as a strategy in international relations: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory
- VuongN 13y ago
  Didn't work so well with Ho Chi Minh during the Vietnam War. When there's nothing left to loose but pride, I'm quite sure that the "mad" metric is a little off.
EliRivers 13y ago
On the other hand, China can do pretty much whatever it wants. Within a remarkably short distance of China. It does not have the equipment or expertise to globally project serious power for extended periods.
- imrehg 13y ago
  Well, living in Taiwan, I feel that "remarkably short distance" is too large for me already.
  - EliRivers 13y ago
    On the plus-side, China's current lack of a serious anti-submarine capability means any seaborne invasion of Taiwan can essentially only happen with the permission of the US. It's not so far from China to Taiwan on the map, but it's a hell of a long way in a warship :)
    - a8da6b0c91d 13y ago
      I doubt the US has the nerve to risk all out war for Taiwan. Tens or hundreds of thousands of American dead for what?
      - EliRivers 13y ago
        I could say the same thing about the most recent Iraq war and subsequent occupation; that still happened.
        DominikR 13y ago
        Iraq never had any capabilities to attack the US, you can't compare that to nuclear armed China.
      - Pxtl 13y ago
        I think the US economic ties to China would be a stronger disincentive for the Powers That Be to anger China, moreso than any number of dead soldiers.
yxhuvud 13y ago
China is powerful, but is it powerful enough to beat India, Japan and the phillipines at once? Especially considering that USA have a defence agreement with Japan.
- ctdonath 13y ago
  The concern is that aggressive/imperial-minded political leaders may conclude the USA's current leader is disinterested in fulfilling defense agreements with several nations. ETA: With US presidential terms limited as they are, there is a fast-dwindling window of opportunity for others to take advantage of this timidity. Such an action would take about a year, and would preferably be completed well before a more militaristic President is elected.
  - ihsw 13y ago
    And they wouldn't be wrong -- the US is quite timid towards China, despite all of the saber rattling in American politics. Methinks China would prefer this timidity to be obvious to everybody rather than quietly hidden among diplomatic undertones -- very devious indeed, and quite dangerous because there are quite a few on both sides that would like to see an escalation of tension.
- repsilat 13y ago
  Japan has a hell of a military (ahem, "self-defense force), but the others... India has some serious logistical problems, especially on its Chinese border, and it's having a hard time fixing it. The Chinese have been pushing into Arunchal Pradesh with impunity because they have the supporting infrastructure on their side of the border that India doesn't. (India also has nukes, but we're a long way from that mattering.) The Philippines sadly has little military capability to speak of. Other countries are effectively donating hardware to them (ships, mostly), but at the moment their best defense lies in their political ties, and the best help they can offer is to serve as a staging point for other nations' forces. Korea is a funny one, though. They're friendly to the Filipinos (and Americans), but the people there share a lot of the anti-Japanese sentiment seen in China. I think the scope of any role they play will be pretty path dependant, mostly hinging on where things flare up first.
VuongN 13y ago
>On the other hand, China can do pretty much whatever it wants I'm a Vietnamese with Nghe An root, so pardon me if I'm a little surprised at this statement. Has the world learn nothing from history? This is not my question, this is a question that was asked countless times by politicians and scholars during the Vietnam/American War. China had tried to invade/colonize Vietnam for over 1000 years, and each time, they went home in shame. Mongolians, Manchurians were able to take over the entire China, yet weren't able to completely dominate or wipe the Vietnamese people out. Vietnam is a VERY small country comparing to China and I think wars aren't always decided by military strength. Unfortunately, like many other smaller countries, Vietnam doesn't have a China problem, it currently has a Vietnam problem. China keeps pushing and the smaller countries are going to realize that they can't fight a bully by themselves. For Vietnam, China keeps pushing, it will expose the Sino-friendly elements of the Vietnamese government and will escalate a change in government power. So perhaps "China can do pretty much whatever it wants"... for a short time. Because if the water is under so much pressure, it will break the dam.

by Udo 13y ago

ridruejo 13y ago

"Peace in our time" they used to say

arethuza 13y ago
Nitpick: You are probably thinking of Chamberlain saying "Peace for our time" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_for_our_time http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_for_our_time
- ridruejo 13y ago
  Correct

topynate 13y ago

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thitu_Island https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thitu_Island It's an inhabited island with a military base and an airstrip; I don't see the Philippines just walking away. Moreover, both Taiwan and Vietnam also have claims on the island, not to mention that the US has no desire to see any part of the Spratlys leave its sphere of influence. China might like to confine the repercussions of a military capture of the island, but that relies on intimidating all the countries I just mentioned, which I do not believe it can do.

SuperChihuahua 13y ago
The airstrip is larger than the island: https://maps.google.com/maps?q=Thitu+Island&hl=sv&geocode=FQGpqAAdOdrPBg&hnear=Thitu+Island&t=h&z=16 https://maps.google.com/maps?q=Thitu+Island&hl=sv&geocode=FQ...

arethuza 13y ago

Intentionally acting crazy has actually been used as a strategy in international relations: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory

VuongN 13y ago
Didn't work so well with Ho Chi Minh during the Vietnam War. When there's nothing left to loose but pride, I'm quite sure that the "mad" metric is a little off.

EliRivers 13y ago

On the other hand, China can do pretty much whatever it wants. Within a remarkably short distance of China. It does not have the equipment or expertise to globally project serious power for extended periods.

imrehg 13y ago
Well, living in Taiwan, I feel that "remarkably short distance" is too large for me already.
- EliRivers 13y ago
  On the plus-side, China's current lack of a serious anti-submarine capability means any seaborne invasion of Taiwan can essentially only happen with the permission of the US. It's not so far from China to Taiwan on the map, but it's a hell of a long way in a warship :)
  - a8da6b0c91d 13y ago
    I doubt the US has the nerve to risk all out war for Taiwan. Tens or hundreds of thousands of American dead for what?
    - EliRivers 13y ago
      I could say the same thing about the most recent Iraq war and subsequent occupation; that still happened.
      - DominikR 13y ago
        Iraq never had any capabilities to attack the US, you can't compare that to nuclear armed China.
    - Pxtl 13y ago
      I think the US economic ties to China would be a stronger disincentive for the Powers That Be to anger China, moreso than any number of dead soldiers.

yxhuvud 13y ago

China is powerful, but is it powerful enough to beat India, Japan and the phillipines at once? Especially considering that USA have a defence agreement with Japan.

ctdonath 13y ago
The concern is that aggressive/imperial-minded political leaders may conclude the USA's current leader is disinterested in fulfilling defense agreements with several nations. ETA: With US presidential terms limited as they are, there is a fast-dwindling window of opportunity for others to take advantage of this timidity. Such an action would take about a year, and would preferably be completed well before a more militaristic President is elected.
- ihsw 13y ago
  And they wouldn't be wrong -- the US is quite timid towards China, despite all of the saber rattling in American politics. Methinks China would prefer this timidity to be obvious to everybody rather than quietly hidden among diplomatic undertones -- very devious indeed, and quite dangerous because there are quite a few on both sides that would like to see an escalation of tension.
repsilat 13y ago
Japan has a hell of a military (ahem, "self-defense force), but the others... India has some serious logistical problems, especially on its Chinese border, and it's having a hard time fixing it. The Chinese have been pushing into Arunchal Pradesh with impunity because they have the supporting infrastructure on their side of the border that India doesn't. (India also has nukes, but we're a long way from that mattering.) The Philippines sadly has little military capability to speak of. Other countries are effectively donating hardware to them (ships, mostly), but at the moment their best defense lies in their political ties, and the best help they can offer is to serve as a staging point for other nations' forces. Korea is a funny one, though. They're friendly to the Filipinos (and Americans), but the people there share a lot of the anti-Japanese sentiment seen in China. I think the scope of any role they play will be pretty path dependant, mostly hinging on where things flare up first.

VuongN 13y ago

>On the other hand, China can do pretty much whatever it wants I'm a Vietnamese with Nghe An root, so pardon me if I'm a little surprised at this statement. Has the world learn nothing from history? This is not my question, this is a question that was asked countless times by politicians and scholars during the Vietnam/American War. China had tried to invade/colonize Vietnam for over 1000 years, and each time, they went home in shame. Mongolians, Manchurians were able to take over the entire China, yet weren't able to completely dominate or wipe the Vietnamese people out. Vietnam is a VERY small country comparing to China and I think wars aren't always decided by military strength. Unfortunately, like many other smaller countries, Vietnam doesn't have a China problem, it currently has a Vietnam problem. China keeps pushing and the smaller countries are going to realize that they can't fight a bully by themselves. For Vietnam, China keeps pushing, it will expose the Sino-friendly elements of the Vietnamese government and will escalate a change in government power. So perhaps "China can do pretty much whatever it wants"... for a short time. Because if the water is under so much pressure, it will break the dam.