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An "educated guess" is an educated guess. As opposed to a guess based on ignorance. However, this isn't even the point. The purpose of creating the plan is n

An "educated guess" is an educated guess. As opposed to a guess based on ignorance. However, this isn't even the point. The purpose of creating the plan is not to have a plan. The purpose of creating the plan is to go through the exercise of planning. When he invaded Europe, he had a plan. I'm pretty sure that things did not go according to it. I'm also pretty sure no one would argue that it was still a good idea to have one. Planning doesn't just make you "feel good", it better prepares you for the possible situations that come up and allows you to react better to them. There is nothing inherent in planning that precludes you from "gathering feedback from the real world" or from adapting to circumstances. "Adapt instead of predict" - this is where our viewpoints diverge. You see planing as a an exercise of prediction. I see it as preparation. This is why you equate planning with guessing and I see it as getting ready for what will happen next. (Heck, maybe he's talking specifically about those "business plans" that VCs supposedly are always asking for but supposedly never read.)

GHFigs 17y ago
As opposed to a guess based on ignorance. Nobody is arguing for ignorance. That's not an argument made in either the original post or in mine. The thesis is that what people call planning is usually guessing and should be treated as such, not that making informed decisions is bad, not that guessing is bad, and not that planning is bad. You say planning is preparation, but preparation for what? You are necessarily making predictions about what will happen in the future and what the appropriate course of action will be. The ideas are inseparable. Again: not that this is bad, but it is still guesswork--still map, not territory--and should be de-emphasized relative to dealing with the territory itself. How much you devote to it depends on the costs associated with speculating on a course of action. Is this time spent planning going to save more time of work? Are the consequences of these possible situations worth the effort expended to prepare for them? If you're (say) coordinating hundreds of thousands of people to invade Europe, the cost of speculating and preparing is dwarfed by the cost of changing course to react to new developments. On the other end, especially when it's an individual or a small business, sometimes the cost of speculating on a course of action is higher than the cost of just putting it into practice.

GHFigs 17y ago

As opposed to a guess based on ignorance. Nobody is arguing for ignorance. That's not an argument made in either the original post or in mine. The thesis is that what people call planning is usually guessing and should be treated as such, not that making informed decisions is bad, not that guessing is bad, and not that planning is bad. You say planning is preparation, but preparation for what? You are necessarily making predictions about what will happen in the future and what the appropriate course of action will be. The ideas are inseparable. Again: not that this is bad, but it is still guesswork--still map, not territory--and should be de-emphasized relative to dealing with the territory itself. How much you devote to it depends on the costs associated with speculating on a course of action. Is this time spent planning going to save more time of work? Are the consequences of these possible situations worth the effort expended to prepare for them? If you're (say) coordinating hundreds of thousands of people to invade Europe, the cost of speculating and preparing is dwarfed by the cost of changing course to react to new developments. On the other end, especially when it's an individual or a small business, sometimes the cost of speculating on a course of action is higher than the cost of just putting it into practice.