>That's if there isn't a civil war first. They're built as a highly centralized empire where the Han Chinese have basically all the power, and the other groups

>That's if there isn't a civil war first. They're built as a highly centralized empire where the Han Chinese have basically all the power, and the other groups - Xianjianese, Chen Chinese, Hong Kongese, Taiwanese, Macanese, and Tibetans all have no power and basically don't want to be part of China. Historically that produces civil wars. I think as soon as one of the areas pushes hard for independence, others will follow. You would have to combine that with a weakened Chinese government to get a civil war. If one of those groups pushed hard for independence now, you'd be more likely see a brief civil war, ending with lots of dead Tibetans/Xianjianese/etc, followed by a return to the status quo - which is probably why they're not pushing hard for independence.