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I feel sorry for those buying bitcoins at prices $900+, seriously! China has two more weeks until the shut down - so far Huobi and a couple of other exchanges s

by kolev 13y ago

I feel sorry for those buying bitcoins at prices $900+, seriously! China has two more weeks until the shut down - so far Huobi and a couple of other exchanges still allow bank transfers into the exchanges and the Chinese are making their last profits. When Yuan stops flowing into the exchanges (or becomes much harder), the only Yuans you can get to buy is when you sell. I'm sure people will figure out to buy via friends from outside the country, but you can't really do the current level of speculation not having quick transfers in and out. Keep in mind most of the trade volume is in China! Mt.Gox has ridiculously low volume, yet, both Bitstamp and BTC-e follow it although they have much more volume now. Remember on the 14th the Taobao restriction also kicks in. Also, hearings won't be very positive this time as it looks. Anyway, November was a great month, but not every month in November! Also, the initial excitement about Overstock will quickly subside. It just can't get any better than this.

kolev 13y ago
Thanks for downvoting without giving a reason why!
- socillion 13y ago
  How does the ban on 3rd party payment processors affect direct bank transfers?
  - kolev 13y ago
    As it's obvious that they are using the letter of the ban to go around the spirit of the ban.
ryanyeah 13y ago
Have you got a link to reference this as happening?
deleted 13y ago
[deleted]
uniclaude 13y ago
Don't feel sorry for those people, exchanges exist for a reason. If people feel like they do not want to hold on their cryptocurrencies anymore, they can still sell them. Moreover, as long as there are enough people willing to buy those coins at a higher price, it can only keep rising. I'm not a bitcoin booster or super believer or whatever the term is (even though I have some), but even if we are to follow your arguments, and assume that Chinese traders got the price that high, we can say that with a market cap as low as $10B, China hadn't likely injected as much money as Wall Street would if they entered the market. My point is that even if the price crashes because of some bad news in China, it still has a chance to rise again when Wall Street comes (if we are to believe that those companies still want to enter). It really looks like speculation is what keeps the btc/usd pair rising, but with such good news coming, I can't think of a lot of reasons why people would stop speculating. Keep in mind that there is no short supply of people who want to get rich with little work.
- kolev 13y ago
  You cannot deny that the current high price is due to the extremely high demand in China. Get China out of the picture, add a bit more due to Zynga and Overstock, the price should be less than $300.
  - uniclaude 13y ago
    I'm not denying it, just pointing that some other factors could have the same effect.
VexXtreme 13y ago
> It just can't get any better than this. People were saying this in 2010 when it reached dollar parity, in 2011 when it was $20 a pop and they keep saying it now. It really means nothing. Also, you're getting downvoted because you're making these hard and fast predictions without substantiating them with anything but pure speculation. If you really believe BTC is about to drop then why don't you put your money where your mouth is and short it? There's a fortune to be made if your predictions turn out to be correct.
- kolev 13y ago
  A lot of people mix profiting and preaching. If you believe in Bitcoin, you don't necessarily have to support its high price. In fact, the high price and the volatility limit mass adoption, the exponential growth makes many people recognize it as a bubble and they don't want to participate. Many just want to get rich from Bitcoin easily and secretly multiply the number of bitcoins they own times the Winklevii level of $40K or higher and go to bed with a smile. Instead of creating real value, many rush to make money from the raise by not doing much, putting their last penny into bitcoins. As companies like BitPay and Coinbase eventually drag the price down, I read many Bitcoin diehards suggesting to immediately replenish your coins right after purchase, i.e. spend your bitcoins and then pay 1% + $0.15 at Coinbase. I won't mention that the rate will be different at that moment, too! :) Loyalism to the level of idiotism! If you believe Bitcoin price will keep going up, pay with your credit card, and then pay your credit card balance 30 days later when it will cost you less Bitcoins! Or don't pay it at all - the APR will be nothing compared to the logarithmic growth, right? :)
  - VexXtreme 13y ago
    I believe it will keep going up but I am not 100% certain (anyone who says they are is an idiot or clueless) so I am invested only with an amount I am comfortable with. It's not an all or nothing kind of situation; you can be be exposed to an asset in proportion with the risk you associate with the said asset. It's called risk weighting and it's considered basic investing knowledge. At this point I am not comfortable investing more in BTC but I would also be very reluctant to bet against it. I currently believe that the chance that BTC will reach the levels the Winklevii are talking about is minuscule, otherwise I would've already dumped all my savings into it. I have a dislike for people who keep preaching either about BTC completely failing or overtaking the entire world economy. Both belong to the same camp of irrational thinking and simply hoping their preferred outcome happens. There is a certain probability distribution associated with the future price and the chance that the price will be at the either end of the curve (0 or max) is tiny. This is why I always tell people who make black and white "predictions" about price to simply invest according to their beliefs and certainty levels. It usually reveals real quick what they really believe (more often than not, they're full of shit).

by kolev 13y ago

kolev 13y ago

Thanks for downvoting without giving a reason why!

socillion 13y ago
How does the ban on 3rd party payment processors affect direct bank transfers?
- kolev 13y ago
  As it's obvious that they are using the letter of the ban to go around the spirit of the ban.

ryanyeah 13y ago

Have you got a link to reference this as happening?

deleted 13y ago

[deleted]

uniclaude 13y ago

Don't feel sorry for those people, exchanges exist for a reason. If people feel like they do not want to hold on their cryptocurrencies anymore, they can still sell them. Moreover, as long as there are enough people willing to buy those coins at a higher price, it can only keep rising. I'm not a bitcoin booster or super believer or whatever the term is (even though I have some), but even if we are to follow your arguments, and assume that Chinese traders got the price that high, we can say that with a market cap as low as $10B, China hadn't likely injected as much money as Wall Street would if they entered the market. My point is that even if the price crashes because of some bad news in China, it still has a chance to rise again when Wall Street comes (if we are to believe that those companies still want to enter). It really looks like speculation is what keeps the btc/usd pair rising, but with such good news coming, I can't think of a lot of reasons why people would stop speculating. Keep in mind that there is no short supply of people who want to get rich with little work.

kolev 13y ago
You cannot deny that the current high price is due to the extremely high demand in China. Get China out of the picture, add a bit more due to Zynga and Overstock, the price should be less than $300.
- uniclaude 13y ago
  I'm not denying it, just pointing that some other factors could have the same effect.

VexXtreme 13y ago

> It just can't get any better than this. People were saying this in 2010 when it reached dollar parity, in 2011 when it was $20 a pop and they keep saying it now. It really means nothing. Also, you're getting downvoted because you're making these hard and fast predictions without substantiating them with anything but pure speculation. If you really believe BTC is about to drop then why don't you put your money where your mouth is and short it? There's a fortune to be made if your predictions turn out to be correct.

kolev 13y ago
A lot of people mix profiting and preaching. If you believe in Bitcoin, you don't necessarily have to support its high price. In fact, the high price and the volatility limit mass adoption, the exponential growth makes many people recognize it as a bubble and they don't want to participate. Many just want to get rich from Bitcoin easily and secretly multiply the number of bitcoins they own times the Winklevii level of $40K or higher and go to bed with a smile. Instead of creating real value, many rush to make money from the raise by not doing much, putting their last penny into bitcoins. As companies like BitPay and Coinbase eventually drag the price down, I read many Bitcoin diehards suggesting to immediately replenish your coins right after purchase, i.e. spend your bitcoins and then pay 1% + $0.15 at Coinbase. I won't mention that the rate will be different at that moment, too! :) Loyalism to the level of idiotism! If you believe Bitcoin price will keep going up, pay with your credit card, and then pay your credit card balance 30 days later when it will cost you less Bitcoins! Or don't pay it at all - the APR will be nothing compared to the logarithmic growth, right? :)
- VexXtreme 13y ago
  I believe it will keep going up but I am not 100% certain (anyone who says they are is an idiot or clueless) so I am invested only with an amount I am comfortable with. It's not an all or nothing kind of situation; you can be be exposed to an asset in proportion with the risk you associate with the said asset. It's called risk weighting and it's considered basic investing knowledge. At this point I am not comfortable investing more in BTC but I would also be very reluctant to bet against it. I currently believe that the chance that BTC will reach the levels the Winklevii are talking about is minuscule, otherwise I would've already dumped all my savings into it. I have a dislike for people who keep preaching either about BTC completely failing or overtaking the entire world economy. Both belong to the same camp of irrational thinking and simply hoping their preferred outcome happens. There is a certain probability distribution associated with the future price and the chance that the price will be at the either end of the curve (0 or max) is tiny. This is why I always tell people who make black and white "predictions" about price to simply invest according to their beliefs and certainty levels. It usually reveals real quick what they really believe (more often than not, they're full of shit).