4 ms·

Let's just call plans what they are: guesses

30 points by peter123 17y ago

GiraffeNecktie 17y ago
I'm afraid I don't see the point of this (very brief) blog post. A good "plan" is not simply a wild ass guess at how the future will unfold. It also covers, directly or indirectly, the past (industry trends, experience of the participants etc) and the present (competitive landscape, financial and other assets etc). Even when addressing the future, a good plan will be informed by envisioning a diverse range of possibilities that may or may not unfold. And of course, a plan is not really a roadmap so much as it is a way of marshalling resources (money, courage, etc) to begin a journey into the unknown.
ErrantX 17y ago
Bad, bad, bad plan. Sometimes i wonder if 37signals exist in In the real world :) If I go to my boss with a "5 year strategy guess" he will fire me. On the spot - and this is a guy who doesn't do corporate crap either. Guess implies a level of ignorance in your data. Plan implies less ignorance and more consideration.
- rimantas 17y ago
  So, how many plans at the beginning of 2008 had recession in mind? My guess that no one was that "ignorant" and those who were were fired at the spot. So much consideration.
- run4yourlives 17y ago
  I would submit though that a 5 year plan that is anything more than a couple of paragraphs of intent is in fact a waste of time.
  - ErrantX 17y ago
    Entirely depends what your planning. I've only written one 5 year plan admittedly but it was 4 pages long - and will guideline the project for that time.
    - run4yourlives 17y ago
      If your project is 5 years long, it's really a series of smaller projects. There isn't much that can be anticipated 5 years down the line, but I'm willing to hear any examples that you have.
      - ErrantX 17y ago
        We've never been a big fan of "splitting things up" (I know others are) because it tends to over complicate matters :) Examples - they should be obvious. 5 years isnt a great long time in some industries (Operating systems perhaps, Chip manufacturing etc etc.). Our example is case management software - it's a good 5 year plan, Im sure it will work with little modification (18 months in things are going nicely).
      - astrec 17y ago
        Depends on your industry, doesn't it? For example, coal seams will pretty much be where you left them in 5 years hence why we see detailed excavation plans out to 50 years.
mynameishere 17y ago
Guesses have to do with probabilities, plans with intentions. So, no real connection. I've never seen a good blog post at 37signals, but this is the dumbest so far.
- kirse 17y ago
  37Signals seems to me like the edgy anti-conformist artsy kid who tries to be creative by doing the opposite of what is usually done. That or they try to be uselessly introspective, like the plaques in front of the majority of the meaningless metal "sculptures" you find in cities. Another example: http://www.37signals.com/svn/posts/1555-learning-from-failure-is-overrated http://www.37signals.com/svn/posts/1555-learning-from-failur...
- GHFigs 17y ago
  What kind of plans don't make assumptions about the probability of future events?
imgabe 17y ago
If you're making predictions about what other people are going to do, call it a guess. If you're making predictions about what you are going to do, it should be a plan.
- rimantas 17y ago
  Yeah, if you are in the business that does not depend on the market and other people, you can plan. Otherwise you are just guessing.
alanthonyc 17y ago
Will I be the first one to quote Eisenhower? "Plans are nothing, planning is everything." The act of planning implies careful thought. "Guessing" implies a haphazard attempt at divining the future. I'll stick with the former.
- bockris 17y ago
  That quote is hanging in my cube at eye-level. Related: "A plan is a list of things that don't happen." (which Google tells me is from a movie called "The Way of the Gun")
- Edinburger 17y ago
  Well said. 37s have missed some important points: * A plan is a statement of your intentions at the time it is written. * Writing the plan helps to clarify your understanding of the problem, forces you to consider difficult issues and acts as a communications tool to enable your team to pull in the same direction. * All plans should be adaptive. * Plans contain estimates, not 'guesses' * Good planners can manage (but not remove) the risk around those estimates.
- GHFigs 17y ago
  The act of planning implies careful thought. An educated guess is still a guess. The point is that no amount of planning will guarantee a real outcome. A plan isn't any more real than a guess, and the only difference is the degree of confidence, which thanks to optimism bias may not even be justified by the data used to generate the plan. This may feel good insofar as the point of planning is to reduce anxiety (individual and institutional) about possible outcomes, but too much faith in planning can mean both wasted time developing and false confidence in what is essentially a guess. I agree with Jason that referring to these things as guesses assigns them the appropriate status. As he says, there is nothing wrong with guessing, just with overthinking and overvaluing them as though they are something more concrete than they actually are. The basic principle here is to favor constant feedback from the real world over carefully thought out fantasies about what might happen. To adapt instead of predict. It is a common pattern, seen in the OODA loop and manuver warfare, in TPS and Lean, in Agile, XP, and Scrum. All of these incorporate a de-emphasis on planning and favor adaptation to current circumstances.
run4yourlives 17y ago
Not really up to 37 Signals' standard. It seems they've confused a detailed, rigid bible of a plan with being the only way to direct yourself. I think they're doing this on purpose though. As has been said, a plan is a statement of intent. It attempts to anticipate what it can in an attempt to make choices easier when you are "in action". You are doing it wrong both if you have no intent at all and if you attempt to account for every conceivable scenario; if you do that, you never achieve your intent ~ duh!. Here is my plan to rent a movie this weekend: 1. My objective is to secure a movie on DVD and watch it Friday night with my wife, generally enjoying the night. (See - a goal, a method and a deadline.) 2. I intend to do this by getting into my car and driving to the video store. (This is a general statement of action. I don't bother anticipating whether there is a roadblock on my street, or whether my car will start or not. That would be over-planning, and as 37S suggests, stupid.) There will most likely be things that will need to be adjusted, some big, some small. 3. Assuming the original objective remains viable, I'll rent the dvd and return home. (Note here that I am not aimlessly evaluating video stores, romping off to best buy to upgrade to blueray, or stopping at starbucks for a latte on my way to get the movie. The plan allows me to frame the actions within the realm of achieving the objectives! It helps me to make decisions. I have assumed that the objective is valid for whatever reason. Your plan helps you test that assumption, nothing more, nothing less. Edit: Adding number 4: If, while carrying out my plan I find out that the video store is on fire, or that my wife would rather go to the theatre instead of renting, I adapt to the changing reality. I do not stubbornly insist that I follow my predefined plan. I incorporate the new variables into it. In certain cases, this does in fact mean changing the objective. However, I reassess the situation and re-plan from there. Not having any plan is about as dumb as planning to the nth degree, IMO. Even worse, I think 37S understands this perfectly.
bena 17y ago
Failing to plan is planning to fail.
mattwdelong 17y ago
Well, what we do know is that a plan is based on predicates. For x to occur, y must also occur. The trouble is that in the future, certain things just cannot happen; that is when we need to become agile. We must adjust our planning to correlate with our current surroundings - essentially you cannot force things that just won't happen and if you do the result is an unrealistic forecast. With that being said, you must know where you want to go - but we cannot define how we are going to get there. Because in the end, it`s not particularly important how we got there, just that we get there. "Drive to arrive"
Elepsis 17y ago
I think that focusing on the plan vs. guess argument is missing the point of the blog post. The argument they are making, at least to me, seems rather to be about avoiding the all-too-common analysis paralysis. Like they write in the post, if you are spending all your time worrying about whether your plan is perfect or not, you aren't going to get to the point of actually _doing_ anything. If you find yourself in that situation, taking a step back and realizing that many times a plan is nothing more than a guess could remove that barrier to productivity.

30 points by peter123 17y ago

I'm afraid I don't see the point of this (very brief) blog post. A good "plan" is not simply a wild ass guess at how the future will unfold. It also covers, directly or indirectly, the past (industry trends, experience of the participants etc) and the present (competitive landscape, financial and other assets etc). Even when addressing the future, a good plan will be informed by envisioning a diverse range of possibilities that may or may not unfold. And of course, a plan is not really a roadmap so much as it is a way of marshalling resources (money, courage, etc) to begin a journey into the unknown.

ErrantX 17y ago

Bad, bad, bad plan. Sometimes i wonder if 37signals exist in In the real world :) If I go to my boss with a "5 year strategy guess" he will fire me. On the spot - and this is a guy who doesn't do corporate crap either. Guess implies a level of ignorance in your data. Plan implies less ignorance and more consideration.

rimantas 17y ago
So, how many plans at the beginning of 2008 had recession in mind? My guess that no one was that "ignorant" and those who were were fired at the spot. So much consideration.
run4yourlives 17y ago
I would submit though that a 5 year plan that is anything more than a couple of paragraphs of intent is in fact a waste of time.
- ErrantX 17y ago
  Entirely depends what your planning. I've only written one 5 year plan admittedly but it was 4 pages long - and will guideline the project for that time.
  - run4yourlives 17y ago
    If your project is 5 years long, it's really a series of smaller projects. There isn't much that can be anticipated 5 years down the line, but I'm willing to hear any examples that you have.
    - ErrantX 17y ago
      We've never been a big fan of "splitting things up" (I know others are) because it tends to over complicate matters :) Examples - they should be obvious. 5 years isnt a great long time in some industries (Operating systems perhaps, Chip manufacturing etc etc.). Our example is case management software - it's a good 5 year plan, Im sure it will work with little modification (18 months in things are going nicely).
    - astrec 17y ago
      Depends on your industry, doesn't it? For example, coal seams will pretty much be where you left them in 5 years hence why we see detailed excavation plans out to 50 years.

mynameishere 17y ago

Guesses have to do with probabilities, plans with intentions. So, no real connection. I've never seen a good blog post at 37signals, but this is the dumbest so far.

kirse 17y ago
37Signals seems to me like the edgy anti-conformist artsy kid who tries to be creative by doing the opposite of what is usually done. That or they try to be uselessly introspective, like the plaques in front of the majority of the meaningless metal "sculptures" you find in cities. Another example: http://www.37signals.com/svn/posts/1555-learning-from-failure-is-overrated http://www.37signals.com/svn/posts/1555-learning-from-failur...
GHFigs 17y ago
What kind of plans don't make assumptions about the probability of future events?

imgabe 17y ago

If you're making predictions about what other people are going to do, call it a guess. If you're making predictions about what you are going to do, it should be a plan.

rimantas 17y ago
Yeah, if you are in the business that does not depend on the market and other people, you can plan. Otherwise you are just guessing.

alanthonyc 17y ago

Will I be the first one to quote Eisenhower? "Plans are nothing, planning is everything." The act of planning implies careful thought. "Guessing" implies a haphazard attempt at divining the future. I'll stick with the former.

bockris 17y ago
That quote is hanging in my cube at eye-level. Related: "A plan is a list of things that don't happen." (which Google tells me is from a movie called "The Way of the Gun")
Edinburger 17y ago
Well said. 37s have missed some important points: * A plan is a statement of your intentions at the time it is written. * Writing the plan helps to clarify your understanding of the problem, forces you to consider difficult issues and acts as a communications tool to enable your team to pull in the same direction. * All plans should be adaptive. * Plans contain estimates, not 'guesses' * Good planners can manage (but not remove) the risk around those estimates.
GHFigs 17y ago
The act of planning implies careful thought. An educated guess is still a guess. The point is that no amount of planning will guarantee a real outcome. A plan isn't any more real than a guess, and the only difference is the degree of confidence, which thanks to optimism bias may not even be justified by the data used to generate the plan. This may feel good insofar as the point of planning is to reduce anxiety (individual and institutional) about possible outcomes, but too much faith in planning can mean both wasted time developing and false confidence in what is essentially a guess. I agree with Jason that referring to these things as guesses assigns them the appropriate status. As he says, there is nothing wrong with guessing, just with overthinking and overvaluing them as though they are something more concrete than they actually are. The basic principle here is to favor constant feedback from the real world over carefully thought out fantasies about what might happen. To adapt instead of predict. It is a common pattern, seen in the OODA loop and manuver warfare, in TPS and Lean, in Agile, XP, and Scrum. All of these incorporate a de-emphasis on planning and favor adaptation to current circumstances.

run4yourlives 17y ago

Not really up to 37 Signals' standard. It seems they've confused a detailed, rigid bible of a plan with being the only way to direct yourself. I think they're doing this on purpose though. As has been said, a plan is a statement of intent. It attempts to anticipate what it can in an attempt to make choices easier when you are "in action". You are doing it wrong both if you have no intent at all and if you attempt to account for every conceivable scenario; if you do that, you never achieve your intent ~ duh!. Here is my plan to rent a movie this weekend: 1. My objective is to secure a movie on DVD and watch it Friday night with my wife, generally enjoying the night. (See - a goal, a method and a deadline.) 2. I intend to do this by getting into my car and driving to the video store. (This is a general statement of action. I don't bother anticipating whether there is a roadblock on my street, or whether my car will start or not. That would be over-planning, and as 37S suggests, stupid.) There will most likely be things that will need to be adjusted, some big, some small. 3. Assuming the original objective remains viable, I'll rent the dvd and return home. (Note here that I am not aimlessly evaluating video stores, romping off to best buy to upgrade to blueray, or stopping at starbucks for a latte on my way to get the movie. The plan allows me to frame the actions within the realm of achieving the objectives! It helps me to make decisions. I have assumed that the objective is valid for whatever reason. Your plan helps you test that assumption, nothing more, nothing less. Edit: Adding number 4: If, while carrying out my plan I find out that the video store is on fire, or that my wife would rather go to the theatre instead of renting, I adapt to the changing reality. I do not stubbornly insist that I follow my predefined plan. I incorporate the new variables into it. In certain cases, this does in fact mean changing the objective. However, I reassess the situation and re-plan from there. Not having any plan is about as dumb as planning to the nth degree, IMO. Even worse, I think 37S understands this perfectly.

bena 17y ago

Failing to plan is planning to fail.

mattwdelong 17y ago

Well, what we do know is that a plan is based on predicates. For x to occur, y must also occur. The trouble is that in the future, certain things just cannot happen; that is when we need to become agile. We must adjust our planning to correlate with our current surroundings - essentially you cannot force things that just won't happen and if you do the result is an unrealistic forecast. With that being said, you must know where you want to go - but we cannot define how we are going to get there. Because in the end, it`s not particularly important how we got there, just that we get there. "Drive to arrive"

Elepsis 17y ago

I think that focusing on the plan vs. guess argument is missing the point of the blog post. The argument they are making, at least to me, seems rather to be about avoiding the all-too-common analysis paralysis. Like they write in the post, if you are spending all your time worrying about whether your plan is perfect or not, you aren't going to get to the point of actually _doing_ anything. If you find yourself in that situation, taking a step back and realizing that many times a plan is nothing more than a guess could remove that barrier to productivity.