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This sounds like a bit of a conspiracy theory. I think the thing that you're missing is that success breeds success. PG was able to be successful with YC becau

This sounds like a bit of a conspiracy theory. I think the thing that you're missing is that success breeds success. PG was able to be successful with YC because there were a few successes from the first batch, which built the reputation. That lead to more applications, which meant more people to choose from. Being smart in the choices is part of it, but there are a LOT of successful businesses that weren't part of YC, and a lot who were part of YC and not successful. Then comes the network effect which further builds on previous successes. A YC start-up needs a hand, PG's network is best able to provide it. The '49 equivelantly smart, articulate people who had more average outcomes' sadly, didn't have the first success, which lead to more. This isn't only a factor with YC. Lots of YC companies have built on the success of just getting into YC. Do one thing really well, and people take notice. They offer you the opportunity to do other things really well, and your reputation grows. It's an exponential effect.

jacques_chester 13y ago
> I think the thing that you're missing is that success breeds success. Doesn't this strengthen the argument that luck matters? Consider the careers of hollywood actors. They tend to be jump started by the "big break", rather than being a smooth linear promotion. But LA is stuffed to the gills with actors who never got that big break. The entire city is notoriously oversupplied with good looking waitstaff.
- pedalpete 13y ago
  You're right in many ways. Maybe I was taking the article the wrong way. I'm not suggesting that luck has no role, but I don't think it is lucky break after lucky break. With respect to LA actors, my brother is a director, and he says there is a massive difference between the successful and unsuccessful actors. I thought it was luck, he thinks they work harder than the rest and are better at there craft. Similar to exceptional coders and product managers, how many of those who are successful in those professions would you say are 'lucky'? So are entrepreneurs any different?

jacques_chester 13y ago

> I think the thing that you're missing is that success breeds success. Doesn't this strengthen the argument that luck matters? Consider the careers of hollywood actors. They tend to be jump started by the "big break", rather than being a smooth linear promotion. But LA is stuffed to the gills with actors who never got that big break. The entire city is notoriously oversupplied with good looking waitstaff.

pedalpete 13y ago
You're right in many ways. Maybe I was taking the article the wrong way. I'm not suggesting that luck has no role, but I don't think it is lucky break after lucky break. With respect to LA actors, my brother is a director, and he says there is a massive difference between the successful and unsuccessful actors. I thought it was luck, he thinks they work harder than the rest and are better at there craft. Similar to exceptional coders and product managers, how many of those who are successful in those professions would you say are 'lucky'? So are entrepreneurs any different?