This exact puzzle is discussed in http://lesswrong.com/lw/ul/my_bayesian_enlightenment/ http://lesswrong.com/lw/ul/my_bayesian_enlightenment/: I responded—note

This exact puzzle is discussed in http://lesswrong.com/lw/ul/my_bayesian_enlightenment/ http://lesswrong.com/lw/ul/my_bayesian_enlightenment/: I responded—note that this was completely spontaneous—"What on Earth do you mean? You can't avoid assigning a probability to the mathematician making one statement or another. You're just assuming the probability is 1, and that's unjustified." While the equations of probability theory are agreed upon, there are multiple interpretations[1]. In some ways, it's like QM.[2] 1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_interpretations#Philosophy http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_interpretations#Phi... 2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interpretations_of_quantum_mechanics http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interpretations_of_quantum_mech...