An argument should be credible by itself, not only in the context of counterarguments. A statement without its own proof is quite useless; it is not unreasonabl

An argument should be credible by itself, not only in the context of counterarguments. A statement without its own proof is quite useless; it is not unreasonable for someone to ask for the evidence you used to get to your conclusion. If that data is "I have a gut feeling from watching two shows and thinking about it," then so be it. Just say that. Hand-wavy grandstands are fine, but don't pass something off as deeper than that if it isn't.