4 ms·

Hahahaha oh my god what a response. The fact that you think you're pointing anything out to anyone with that second paragraph is just priceless. In GB and BG,

Hahahaha oh my god what a response. The fact that you think you're pointing anything out to anyone with that second paragraph is just priceless. In GB and BG, he has only one way of telling you which is the boy. In BB, he has two. Thus, four possibilities a) GB, b) BG, c) BB and he gave you the first, d) BB and he gave you the second. Your brain will of course refuse to process the above due to your earlier remark and the sweet, sweet motherfucking irony it would mean.

ColinWright 13y ago
Right, now it's clear that you are answering a different question, and in that question, the answer is 1/2. Many people insist that to be the right question, because the answer matches their intuition, but it is a different question. Not recognizing the difference is what lets some poker players make money. Consider this question. A chap flips a coin in the morning and thereby chooses one of his two children. Today he will only talk about that child. Later I meet him and he talks about his son. I thereby deduce that he has at least one boy. What are the chances he has two sons? (corrected in edit - thank you) Answer: 1/2. Another version: I meet a man and his son, and in conversation it emerges that he has two children. I can see he has at least one son, what are the chances he has two sons? Answer: 1/2. Another version: I meet a man and it emerges in conversation that he has two children. I observe that he is carrying a shopping bag with a child's dress in it, from which I conclude that he has at least one girl. What are the chances he has two girls? Answer: 1/3. (I had to change gender because I couldn't think of anything that would be specific to a boy.) Your dismissal of the idea that there are other interpretations than your own is disappointing. The language in which you couch your dismissals even more so. Are you like this in person?
- edanm 13y ago
  "Consider this question. A chap flips a coin in the morning and thereby chooses one of his two children. Today he will only talk about that child. Later I meet him and he talks about his son. I thereby deduce that he has at least one boy. What are the chances he has two children? Answer: 1/2." Do you mean "what are the chances he has two sons, not children? By the way, thanks for your input on this thread, I'm sure I speak for many in saying that I really appreciate it!
  - ColinWright 13y ago
    > Do you mean ... "sons," not "children"? Yes - thank you - edited to reduce confusion. And thanks for the kind comment.
- gametheoretic 13y ago
  No. In person I can see what the other party is thinking. The two are independent variables, man. I don't know how to explain it any more clearly than that. What's tripping people up is the idea that removing GG from the possibilities doesn't affect the local probability of either particular child being girl. It does. You must reformulate. THAT's the counterintuitive part. It's just hella hard to explain, because there are too many 2's and 1/2's floating around the problem, so when you say one cancels another, people think you're not incorporating the first to begin with, so you must be one of the dolts the author is trying to learn some knowledge. The following, you can take or leave: probability is my thing. I got Monty Hall right when I was in 6th grade. I was an AIME invitee, if you know what that is. I got 800 on the math SAT; 36 on the math ACT in freshman year. None of these things mean anything, logically speaking, I know. I say them only to encourage you (and only you, because you're putting in effort) to consider what I'm saying as fully as you're considering what the crowd is saying.
  - ColinWright 13y ago
    > No. In person I can see what the other party is thinking. So when you have less knowledge about the other person you are more rude. I feel that's logically inconsistent. > The two are independent variables, man. I don't know > how to explain it any more clearly than that. "The two" ?? What "two"? Your "explanations" are very unclear. > What's tripping people up is the idea that removing GG > from the possibilities doesn't affect the local probability > of either particular child being girl. It does. You must > reformulate. Again, it's clear that you are talking about a different problem. Yes, the problem you are talking about has an answer of 1/2. No, it's not the problem we're talking about. > It's just hella hard to explain, ... You will find many things difficult if you don't learn how to slow down, take time, be precise, and explain clearly. Be more like Feynman - take time to explain things clearly and precisely. > ... you must be one of the dolts ... Ah. > The following, you can take or leave: probability is my > thing. I got Monty Hall right when I was in 6th grade. > I was an AIME invitee, if you know what that is. I got > 800 on the math SAT; 36 on the math ACT in freshman year. Good for you. I speak for and contribute to the training of IOM teams, I've been an invited speaker at the Museum of Mathematics in New York, the Dutch National Mathematics days, Matematikbiennalen in Sweden, and more math masterclasses than I can count. This year I'm speaking in London, Switzerland, Belgium, and giving around 150 talks, masterclasses, and workshops. I have a Bachelors, Masters, and PhD. > None of these things mean anything, logically speaking, Right. > I know. I say them only to encourage you (and only you, > because you're putting in effort) to consider what I'm > saying as fully as you're considering what the crowd is > saying. Hmm. Well, thanks for the encouragement. I was only saying these things to point out that I have considered these things, and have some form in the area. I forgot to mention that I was at the G4G when the Tuesday Boy problem was first mentioned, and spent much of the evening with Tanya Khovanova, Gary Foshee, John Conway, Richard Guy, and others, talking about the various interpretations. I didn't talk about it with Martin Gardner when I spent an afternoon with him, we were talking about my work. I mention these things only to point out that you might consider that you are wrong. So, do you answer 1/3 for each of A, B, and C?
DanBC 13y ago
Tone matters on HN. That is why you're being downvoted.
brazzy 13y ago
> The fact that you think you're pointing anything out to anyone with that second paragraph is just priceless. Posturing does not make your arguments more convicing. > In GB and BG, he has only one way of telling you which is the boy. In BB, he has two. Thus, four possibilities a) GB, b) BG, c) BB and he gave you the first, d) BB and he gave you the second. How is "ways of telling" you possibly relevant to the puzzle? You're still apparently committing the same basic fallacy of ennumerating possibilities without assigning them probabilities and basing your argument on the wrong assumption that they must be equally probable. > Your brain will of course refuse to process the above due to your earlier remark and the sweet, sweet motherfucking irony it would mean. That describes exactly your behaviour in every single comment here.
DanBC 13y ago
> In GB and BG, he has only one way of telling you which is the boy. In BB, he has two. Thus, four possibilities a) GB, b) BG, c) BB and he gave you the first, d) BB and he gave you the second. With respect to only the sentence above, why is the following table incorrect? BG 1/3 GB 1/3 BB 1/6 BB 1/6

ColinWright 13y ago

Right, now it's clear that you are answering a different question, and in that question, the answer is 1/2. Many people insist that to be the right question, because the answer matches their intuition, but it is a different question. Not recognizing the difference is what lets some poker players make money. Consider this question. A chap flips a coin in the morning and thereby chooses one of his two children. Today he will only talk about that child. Later I meet him and he talks about his son. I thereby deduce that he has at least one boy. What are the chances he has two sons? (corrected in edit - thank you) Answer: 1/2. Another version: I meet a man and his son, and in conversation it emerges that he has two children. I can see he has at least one son, what are the chances he has two sons? Answer: 1/2. Another version: I meet a man and it emerges in conversation that he has two children. I observe that he is carrying a shopping bag with a child's dress in it, from which I conclude that he has at least one girl. What are the chances he has two girls? Answer: 1/3. (I had to change gender because I couldn't think of anything that would be specific to a boy.) Your dismissal of the idea that there are other interpretations than your own is disappointing. The language in which you couch your dismissals even more so. Are you like this in person?

edanm 13y ago
"Consider this question. A chap flips a coin in the morning and thereby chooses one of his two children. Today he will only talk about that child. Later I meet him and he talks about his son. I thereby deduce that he has at least one boy. What are the chances he has two children? Answer: 1/2." Do you mean "what are the chances he has two sons, not children? By the way, thanks for your input on this thread, I'm sure I speak for many in saying that I really appreciate it!
- ColinWright 13y ago
  > Do you mean ... "sons," not "children"? Yes - thank you - edited to reduce confusion. And thanks for the kind comment.
gametheoretic 13y ago
No. In person I can see what the other party is thinking. The two are independent variables, man. I don't know how to explain it any more clearly than that. What's tripping people up is the idea that removing GG from the possibilities doesn't affect the local probability of either particular child being girl. It does. You must reformulate. THAT's the counterintuitive part. It's just hella hard to explain, because there are too many 2's and 1/2's floating around the problem, so when you say one cancels another, people think you're not incorporating the first to begin with, so you must be one of the dolts the author is trying to learn some knowledge. The following, you can take or leave: probability is my thing. I got Monty Hall right when I was in 6th grade. I was an AIME invitee, if you know what that is. I got 800 on the math SAT; 36 on the math ACT in freshman year. None of these things mean anything, logically speaking, I know. I say them only to encourage you (and only you, because you're putting in effort) to consider what I'm saying as fully as you're considering what the crowd is saying.
- ColinWright 13y ago
  > No. In person I can see what the other party is thinking. So when you have less knowledge about the other person you are more rude. I feel that's logically inconsistent. > The two are independent variables, man. I don't know > how to explain it any more clearly than that. "The two" ?? What "two"? Your "explanations" are very unclear. > What's tripping people up is the idea that removing GG > from the possibilities doesn't affect the local probability > of either particular child being girl. It does. You must > reformulate. Again, it's clear that you are talking about a different problem. Yes, the problem you are talking about has an answer of 1/2. No, it's not the problem we're talking about. > It's just hella hard to explain, ... You will find many things difficult if you don't learn how to slow down, take time, be precise, and explain clearly. Be more like Feynman - take time to explain things clearly and precisely. > ... you must be one of the dolts ... Ah. > The following, you can take or leave: probability is my > thing. I got Monty Hall right when I was in 6th grade. > I was an AIME invitee, if you know what that is. I got > 800 on the math SAT; 36 on the math ACT in freshman year. Good for you. I speak for and contribute to the training of IOM teams, I've been an invited speaker at the Museum of Mathematics in New York, the Dutch National Mathematics days, Matematikbiennalen in Sweden, and more math masterclasses than I can count. This year I'm speaking in London, Switzerland, Belgium, and giving around 150 talks, masterclasses, and workshops. I have a Bachelors, Masters, and PhD. > None of these things mean anything, logically speaking, Right. > I know. I say them only to encourage you (and only you, > because you're putting in effort) to consider what I'm > saying as fully as you're considering what the crowd is > saying. Hmm. Well, thanks for the encouragement. I was only saying these things to point out that I have considered these things, and have some form in the area. I forgot to mention that I was at the G4G when the Tuesday Boy problem was first mentioned, and spent much of the evening with Tanya Khovanova, Gary Foshee, John Conway, Richard Guy, and others, talking about the various interpretations. I didn't talk about it with Martin Gardner when I spent an afternoon with him, we were talking about my work. I mention these things only to point out that you might consider that you are wrong. So, do you answer 1/3 for each of A, B, and C?

DanBC 13y ago

Tone matters on HN. That is why you're being downvoted.

brazzy 13y ago

> The fact that you think you're pointing anything out to anyone with that second paragraph is just priceless. Posturing does not make your arguments more convicing. > In GB and BG, he has only one way of telling you which is the boy. In BB, he has two. Thus, four possibilities a) GB, b) BG, c) BB and he gave you the first, d) BB and he gave you the second. How is "ways of telling" you possibly relevant to the puzzle? You're still apparently committing the same basic fallacy of ennumerating possibilities without assigning them probabilities and basing your argument on the wrong assumption that they must be equally probable. > Your brain will of course refuse to process the above due to your earlier remark and the sweet, sweet motherfucking irony it would mean. That describes exactly your behaviour in every single comment here.

DanBC 13y ago

> In GB and BG, he has only one way of telling you which is the boy. In BB, he has two. Thus, four possibilities a) GB, b) BG, c) BB and he gave you the first, d) BB and he gave you the second. With respect to only the sentence above, why is the following table incorrect? BG 1/3 GB 1/3 BB 1/6 BB 1/6