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that is a very narrow way to look at it. the 9% 'drop in work' will be offset by the increase in consumption caused by a large range of people suddenly having

that is a very narrow way to look at it. the 9% 'drop in work' will be offset by the increase in consumption caused by a large range of people suddenly having more purchasing power, businesses will have to increase production, and hire more workers to do so. they will have to pay the workers more to entice them in, and provide better working conditions. this will generate more work, and higher consumption.

spurgu 13y ago
And artists will have more time/freedom to create and thus inspire people, and from that create more happiness for the general population, which cannot directly be measured in terms of money, but is still very valuable.
lazyjones 13y ago
> businesses will have to increase production, and hire more workers to do so. they will have to pay the workers more to entice them in, and provide better working conditions. this will generate more work, and higher consumption. The problem is, noone has tried to see the complete picture by adding up these effects. The net effect is probably negative, unless this is introduced all over the world simultaneously. Businesses will hire more people and pay them more => prices will go up, purchasing power for domestic products will go down (i.e. the same income will afford fewer domestic products). Imports will go up because those products will be cheaper than before in comparison. Exports will go down for the same reason. Therefore, a large part of the expected higher consumption will go to imports / foreign profits. Due to reduced exports, domestic production will go down instead of up. Since jobs cost more now, there will be even fewer of them than expected. Overall, countries which introduce this, will suffer.
- jeza 13y ago
  What happens if a basic income were adjusted for those price increases? One would think it would be linked to CPI and living costs.
  - lazyjones 13y ago
    I'd expect people to buy (more) imported products rather than (the same amount of more expensive) domestic products. It would probably be worthwhile to give people part money and part vouchers for certain eligible (i.e. domestic but some international treaties might not allow this discrimination of imported goods) products, in order to keep the purchases of domestic goods at a high level.
yummyfajitas 13y ago
We'll have less wealth created, but more people will be willing to spend money consuming it. All that means is prices will go up. Your Keynesian story may eventually play out - the real value of the BI might be inflated away, resulting in people going back to work. Perhaps that will completely mitigate the problem, or perhaps it will merely result in a new equilibrium which only hax 0 < X% < 9% fewer people working. But why create the problem in the first place? If 100 people produce 10 apples each, you have 1000 apples. If 9 of them quit, you have only 910 apples.
- barrkel 13y ago
  However, with 9 people free to quit making apples, the chances of one of them producing oranges increases. I don't think we have good information on second and third order effects.
- davedx 13y ago
  I think a more apt analogy is: If 100 people produce 10 apples each, and 99 robots take over the job of producing apples, there will be 99 unemployed people with no money to buy your 1000 apples.
  - damon_c 13y ago
    ... unless the owner of the robots who profits by selling all the apples to wealthy people in other countries is forced to redistribute the wealth in the form of a basic income.
    - PavlovsCat 13y ago
      In reality however, OWS and other activists are under surveillance to avoid exactly that outcome.
- rayiner 13y ago
  Because is a developed economy, total production is an increasingly irrelevant measure.
- 13y ago
thedufer 13y ago
> they will have to pay the workers more to entice them in, and provide better working conditions. Source? Widespread BI is usually proposed alongside abolishment of the minimum wage. This means that you'd expect wages at the low end to start reflecting job comfort more - crappy jobs (trash pickup?) would have to be paid more to entice people, but cushier jobs may well see pay go down.
maxk42 13y ago
> the 9% 'drop in work' will be offset by the increase in consumption caused by a large range of people suddenly having more purchasing power That money didn't come from nowhere. There is an equal decrease in purchasing power for others due to the increased taxes needed to fuel such an expensive scheme.

spurgu 13y ago

And artists will have more time/freedom to create and thus inspire people, and from that create more happiness for the general population, which cannot directly be measured in terms of money, but is still very valuable.

lazyjones 13y ago

> businesses will have to increase production, and hire more workers to do so. they will have to pay the workers more to entice them in, and provide better working conditions. this will generate more work, and higher consumption. The problem is, noone has tried to see the complete picture by adding up these effects. The net effect is probably negative, unless this is introduced all over the world simultaneously. Businesses will hire more people and pay them more => prices will go up, purchasing power for domestic products will go down (i.e. the same income will afford fewer domestic products). Imports will go up because those products will be cheaper than before in comparison. Exports will go down for the same reason. Therefore, a large part of the expected higher consumption will go to imports / foreign profits. Due to reduced exports, domestic production will go down instead of up. Since jobs cost more now, there will be even fewer of them than expected. Overall, countries which introduce this, will suffer.

jeza 13y ago
What happens if a basic income were adjusted for those price increases? One would think it would be linked to CPI and living costs.
- lazyjones 13y ago
  I'd expect people to buy (more) imported products rather than (the same amount of more expensive) domestic products. It would probably be worthwhile to give people part money and part vouchers for certain eligible (i.e. domestic but some international treaties might not allow this discrimination of imported goods) products, in order to keep the purchases of domestic goods at a high level.

yummyfajitas 13y ago

We'll have less wealth created, but more people will be willing to spend money consuming it. All that means is prices will go up. Your Keynesian story may eventually play out - the real value of the BI might be inflated away, resulting in people going back to work. Perhaps that will completely mitigate the problem, or perhaps it will merely result in a new equilibrium which only hax 0 < X% < 9% fewer people working. But why create the problem in the first place? If 100 people produce 10 apples each, you have 1000 apples. If 9 of them quit, you have only 910 apples.

barrkel 13y ago
However, with 9 people free to quit making apples, the chances of one of them producing oranges increases. I don't think we have good information on second and third order effects.
davedx 13y ago
I think a more apt analogy is: If 100 people produce 10 apples each, and 99 robots take over the job of producing apples, there will be 99 unemployed people with no money to buy your 1000 apples.
- damon_c 13y ago
  ... unless the owner of the robots who profits by selling all the apples to wealthy people in other countries is forced to redistribute the wealth in the form of a basic income.
  - PavlovsCat 13y ago
    In reality however, OWS and other activists are under surveillance to avoid exactly that outcome.
rayiner 13y ago
Because is a developed economy, total production is an increasingly irrelevant measure.
13y ago

thedufer 13y ago

> they will have to pay the workers more to entice them in, and provide better working conditions. Source? Widespread BI is usually proposed alongside abolishment of the minimum wage. This means that you'd expect wages at the low end to start reflecting job comfort more - crappy jobs (trash pickup?) would have to be paid more to entice people, but cushier jobs may well see pay go down.

maxk42 13y ago

> the 9% 'drop in work' will be offset by the increase in consumption caused by a large range of people suddenly having more purchasing power That money didn't come from nowhere. There is an equal decrease in purchasing power for others due to the increased taxes needed to fuel such an expensive scheme.