3 ms·

I've never understood why people debate this so much. It seems to me, if you think we are in a bubble and everyone else is bullish, you would bet against the ma

I've never understood why people debate this so much. It seems to me, if you think we are in a bubble and everyone else is bullish, you would bet against the market and keep quiet about it. My only theory so far is people like Andreessen are taking the game even further- i.e. he believes we are in a bubble, bets accordingly, and publicly says we are not in a bubble to help increase his profits in some fashion. Basically I assume some commentators don't know what they are talking about, and the rest (the ones who know what they are talking about) actively give bad advice on purpose, so I do my best to ignore all this stuff. If we know the speaker is either stupid or malicious, best not to listen.

sirmarksalot 13y ago
The old adage remains true, that the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. If I took out a short position on Facebook, what's the likelihood that it would pay out before I'd burned through my life savings? We're all thinking about it because right now it's a very good time to be a coder, and pretty much every time that's been true, something awful has happened pretty quickly. We're all just invested enough to get burned by it, but not well-heeled enough to put our money where our mouths are. Maybe there's an advertising bubble (I still see a lot of ads for ad-supported services), maybe it's something else, or maybe these toys we've made actually do create a trillion dollars of value to society. Either way, we're along for the ride, and there's little we can do to hedge against it besides being better than the people around us, and hoping to survive the next round of layoffs.