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Swoopo: The crack cocaine of auction sites
- gabrielroth 17y agoFollowup by the author: http://www.thebigmoney.com/blogs/sausage/2009/07/10/were-trying-be-less-evil-really http://www.thebigmoney.com/blogs/sausage/2009/07/10/were-try...
- cesare 17y agoEdit: Maybe there's an explanation for this but it still seems fishy to me. How is it possible that the same people placed the same bids (in the same order) and end up with exactly the same amount for two different items in two different countries? http://www.swoopo.com/auction/apple-macbook-mb466ll-a-13-3-inch-laptop/194388.html http://www.swoopo.com/auction/apple-macbook-mb466ll-a-13-3-i... http://www.swoopo.de/auktion/msi-x-slim-x340-su3523-weiss-/194388.html http://www.swoopo.de/auktion/msi-x-slim-x340-su3523-weiss-/1... (The links above are provided in the followup). What is the probability of this happening? This means that even if they were all following these two items and placing the bids in the same order, nobody else outside of this group has placed a bid.
- eli 17y agoEDIT: At first I thought they were just putting up dummy back-dated auctions to make the site seem more popular (and the deals better). But check out the related auctions across the top for both pages -- the same numbers with the same winning bidders with the same (or similar!) products. All of them. So Germans are indeed bidding against US users -- one in dollars, the other in Euros? That doesn't make any sense http://www.swoopo.de/auktion/fujitsu-siemens-amilo-xi-3650/194480.html http://www.swoopo.de/auktion/fujitsu-siemens-amilo-xi-3650/1... http://www.swoopo.com/auction/asus-n90-series-n90sv-x1-18-4-notebook/194480.html http://www.swoopo.com/auction/asus-n90-series-n90sv-x1-18-4-... Same ID number at the end of the URL. All the auctions appear to span both sites: http://www.swoopo.com/auction/x/194481.html http://www.swoopo.com/auction/x/194481.html http://www.swoopo.de/auktion/x/194481.html http://www.swoopo.de/auktion/x/194481.html This one actually does the dollars to euros conversion properly So clearly people just get an item "similar" to the one they won. You'd think for the massive house advantage they have, they could at least deliver the exact product that you thought you won.
- ephermata 17y agoYes, they call this "international auctions." If you poke around in their FAQ you'll see this documented.
- eli 17y agoExcept they're not always for the same item, and somehow a 100 USD bid beats a 99 EUR bid?
- ephermata 17y agoYes, that's right. In the TechCrunch thread about this, "Valentin" noticed that this is documented in their FAQ as well. The reason given is that the item being sold off may not be available in one of the countries. I (@dmolnar) gave an example where the US bidders win an iPhone 3GS, while the UK bidders win a 3G. Quite different propositions! Pierre Carion then pointed out that as far as he can tell, the API doesn't even count the type of currency. So even though it's not remotely fair, a 100 USD bid will beat a 99 EUR bid just because it's the most recent bid. See the comments here: http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/06/26/unique-auction-site-swoopo-expands-to-canada-testing-buy-it-now/ http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/06/26/unique-auction-site-swo...
- robryan 17y agoSounds a lot like all the other press swoopo has got. While on the surface there new offer to allow the bidder to make up the difference for the item on lost bids seems like an improvement, there retail prices seem to be high enough to negate any benefit there is buying online over your local retailer.
- randallsquared 17y agoMust the community exclaim moral outrage over Swoopo every few months? Sheesh. (For the record, I don't think it's a terrible thing or should be illegal, no matter how profitable.)
- nazgulnarsil 17y agoeveryone's mad they didn't think of it first. it's the most brilliant scam I've ever encountered, doubly so because you can make the case that it's not technically a scam.
- dave_au 17y agoI had an idea for a non-evil gambling site a while back - basically runs at a profit with a small bias against the house. Not a scam, but it has a 'compelling mechanic' component in common with Swoopo (albeit a different mechanic). On one hand I think it could make some cash while not being as dodgy as a regular gambling site, but on the other hand I don't want to encourage gambling addicts with the positive feedback. I'm just glad it's not my only money-spinning idea :)
- brm 17y agoHe calls it evil but doesn't provide much justification other than what he assumes people already believe. In the interest of philosophical discussion... why is maximizing profit using knowledge of consumer behavior "evil" so to speak? If someone uses their available knowledge and decides to enter a swoopo auction, is it really much different than choosing to play at a casino even though we know the house is against us (gambling's existence is something that few outside government seem to have a problem with?)? Is the major hang up that people can pay but not win? If this is known up front can someone provide the rationale behind this being "evil"? Funnily enough I find that the debate over swoopo being evil seems to parallel the debate over spec work being evil (just different currencies involved). Can someone point me to literature on the rational arguments for and against consumer protection?
- papaf 17y agoIn the interest of philosophical discussion... why is maximizing profit using knowledge of consumer behavior "evil" so to speak? I wouldn't go as far as saying this auction idea is 'evil' but I personally feel it is morally dubious. This site was put together by probably quite talented people with knowledge of game theory. How are these people using their talent? To make the world a better place, to forward the human race or to take money off others who are more ignorant than themselves? These auctions have losers who lose money and gain nothing. Maybe those who lose enjoy the chase. However, I personally wouldn't be comfortable working on a system such as this.
- calambrac 17y agoevil (n.) - 1. Killin folks, usually. 2. Preying on human weakness for your own personal gain at others' expense. Seriously, if you don't think of this as evil, what's your definition of evil? gambling's existence is something that few outside government seem to have a problem with Um, what planet are you from? At least 3 major world religions (Judaism, Christianity, Islam) regard gambling as evil.
- patio11 17y agoThe new "losing bidders can apply bids against the cost of the item" is just plausible deniability for their ultimate business model, which is selling 100 people the same Wii. If they end up selling 100 people the same five Wiis (1 at a deep discount, 4 at retail), it is still the same business model from the perspective of 95% of the participants of the transaction, who end up spending a lot of money but get no Wii. I refuse to call them an auction site because that is just sheep's clothing. Their model has absolutely nothing intrinsically auction-like about it -- take a look at their "auctions" for CASH in which the putative "bid price" will never actually be paid by anyone. It just exists to sucker more people into paying scam participation fees.
- raquo 17y agoI am neither a good programmer nor an expert in machine learning or whatever, but look - for each item they have a public bidding history with usernames. So, 1. Write a script that will pull this info once a second 2. Analyze it - You're interested in predicting when a person will quit bidding so that you can join the auction in the latest possible moment and win the item with a minimal number of bids. You have time series of each user's bids (with a distinction of whether they were made manually or automatically) and a dollar value of the item price. 3. ...Profit! Could this work?
- maukdaddy 17y agoGood idea, but I would imagine human behavior is too irrational to model correctly.
- JimmyL 17y agoSomeone tried it - http://jcs.org/notaweblog/2009/03/06/trying_to_game_swoopo_com/ http://jcs.org/notaweblog/2009/03/06/trying_to_game_swoopo_c... - and couldn't get that to work. The author does some interesting pattern analysis of how auctions actually work, and concludes (roughly) that you can't beat BidButler.
- there 17y agothat's my site. i'm pretty sure the last idea i proposed on part two would work fairly well. have the script watch bid activity and when it looks like there's only one other user using bidbutler, turn it on and let it spend money. as soon as a third user starts using bidbutler, turn it off to save money and let the other two fight it out. since both users probably won't use the same price ceiling, it should be pretty clear when one user drops out and the other keeps bidding with bidbutler. at that point, turn it back on and repeat until you're the last one using bidbutler.
- secret 17y agoI'm not a programmer either, but as someone with an econ undergrad degree going into grad school both the data/analysis and the method of obtaining it are really of interest to me. If anyone can point me in the right direction in terms of what I would need to create such a script I'd be willing to do the work and share the results here.
- jv2222 17y agoThese kind of sites were invented in the UK a few years ago. The idea is based on a practice where con artists set up similar kind of "auctions" in the real world (mainly in unused shops on London's Oxford street). The hook is that as you walk past the shop you see that you have the chance to get a play station for $1. So, you and about 100 other people pay $1 with the hope of getting a play station. After everyone's put their money in then they "randomly" select 5 people in the audience and hand over the play station to them. Of course after the show, the audience "plants" secretly give the play stations back. So, in essence they keep recycling the same play stations all day long and real punters keep paying $1 and not getting anything.
- DanielBMarkham 17y agoFinally, I gave up when it became clear that Swoopo could make money faster than I could count it. Two thoughts come to mind. First, it's a rigged game: don't start playing it. Second, people are going to clone this business model. Swoopo is simply one of the first-movers.
- bemmu 17y agoThere are tons of such companies, even here in Finland: http://www.arcticstartup.com/2008/03/26/fiksuhuutofi-smart-bidding-by-the-cent/ http://www.arcticstartup.com/2008/03/26/fiksuhuutofi-smart-b...
- eli 17y agoNo surprise, the basic idea is based on the "dollar auction" which has been a pretty standard part of every undergrad economics class for the past 20 or 30 years. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_auction http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_auction
- derefr 17y ago> Second, people are going to clone this business model. I was pondering variations on Swoopo, and think I went and made it even worse: I would cross it with an MMORPG.
- DanielBMarkham 17y agoIf I could write something in a week, its an interesting idea in social psychology that I'd love to play around with. It's not just the money -- it's finding out what would work and what wouldn't. It'd be a fascinating exploration of the human mind. Would people do this with real money for virtual goods? Would they trade things that would have more monetary value later for things that have less monetary value now? Could you just write an app that had people pushing a button for "free" cash? Is there a tie-in to social networks? Could you tie it into the iPod, or an addictive game? with the right combination, the whole thing could go viral. The idea of "cheating" people doesn't interest me -- If I did something like that I'd be clear about this being for entertainment value only and I'd even support limits on the amount of play per day. It's just the rest of the man-machine interaction that's so cool here. Are the people somehow "broken" and the machine is taking advantage of them? Or is this just entertainment, no more different than going to Vegas for a weekend?
- eli 17y agoThat's not an auction site, it's a social psychology thesis.
- moe 17y agoAhem, actually it's just a scam, in it's purest form. No, it doesn't qualify as gambling because your chance to win is not determined by luck but solely at the discretion of the people running the show. Imagine you enter a casino and someone offers you the following game: There's a red button, one push costs $1. Anyone may push as often as they want and can afford. If the button isn't pushed for one hour then the last person who had pushed receives $1000 USD (fixed). Fine you may think, I'll come here at thanksgiving when nobody is around and push it then. Except that there's always this one sleazy guy lurking in the corner, even at thanksgiving, with that strangely swollen thumb and an seemingly unlimited budget...
- cesare 17y agoExactly. Maybe there are people working for them by placing bids until they win every item. It would explain this: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=700250 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=700250 Even with the new option to buy the products at full price, it would still be a scam since they've acquired customers by cheating them into thinking they would have the possibility to buy at a discounted price. Anyway, there's an issue with the transparency of their operations which is not required in an auction site like ebay since on ebay the winner of the auction must be real, in order to buy the item from the seller.
- moe 17y agoIn reality you don't hire people for that, way too risky. You simply have a few "good friends" run a bidbot-script on some leftover machines. That's near impossible to detect (just create new accounts and cycle credit cards regularly) and makes the scheme entirely bulletproof.
- wlievens 17y ago
- pj 17y agoI discovered Swoopo, as many people do, through an online ad plugging its latest deal, a fancy desktop computer at more than 90 percent off See here! This is the problem with ads. You see ads, you click it, and you regret it. This author would be better off without ever having seen the ad. Block ads. They are bad for you.
- petercooper 17y agoBlock ads. They are bad for you. Unless you like to enjoy newspapers, television, free content sites, Spotify, or the like, of course.
- jemka 17y agoI just watched this auction: http://www.swoopo.com/auction.html?cm_re=Homepage-_-Grid-_-1/1/Link&aid=193934 http://www.swoopo.com/auction.html?cm_re=Homepage-_-Grid-_-1... Let's hop on over to newegg: http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16822148341 http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16822148... Yikes. I think I'll tick to ebay for my auctions. BTW, I can't figure out who pays the $73.20 for the 122 bids. Where those the bids of the user? Or was that total bids from everyone?
- mildavw 17y agoTo me, their "savings" window math implies that the 122 is the number of bids the winner placed; the winner only.
- zaidf 17y agoI love people that try to make this a black and white case of scam. If this is a scam, so is, say, charging folks 15 cents to send a text message. In both cases, the end company ends up making a windfall of money. In both cases the customer knows exactly what he is getting and agrees to it.
- padmapper 17y agoText messages are a scam. Especially when the company also charges you that .15 when you receive a message without consenting to it. And when there are no alternatives and little price competition because it's commonly accepted practice in the industry to make a huge windfall off of texting.
- dasil003 17y agoText messages are totally a scam because of the markup factor... but Swoopo also has the lottery factor. That is the vast majority of people get NOTHING for their $10, $100, $1000. I don't understand why people are trying to defend it on a technicality. Yes, technically it may be legal, however it's ripping stupid people off left and right.
- zaidf 17y agoit's ripping stupid people off left and right It's not ripping off if people clearly know what they are getting into.
- dasil003 17y agoThe thing is they don't. I think most people at HN have been introduced to Swoopo based on articles analyzing just how much of a ripoff it is by running some numbers. To the first-time visitor it is not clear at all that they are basically playing a lottery with a very low payout. Calling it an auction is misleading because in an auction you only pay if you place the winning bid. This is more like a raffle, but it's not labeled as such.
- jimmyrcom 17y agohttp://blog.jimmyr.com/Auction_site_Swoopo_a_scam_or_a_bargain__13_2009.php http://blog.jimmyr.com/Auction_site_Swoopo_a_scam_or_a_barga... has a list of the most money swoopo has made on some of their auctions. Bots don't help at all either, the whole system is designed to where swoopo always wins.
- omarish 17y agoHere's a link to their html and js in .tar.gz format: http://bit.ly/10hSUR http://bit.ly/10hSUR. Have fun!