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Can you elaborate on the posterior calculation of (2^10)/999?
by gallamine 13y ago
Can you elaborate on the posterior calculation of (2^10)/999?
- madcaptenor 13y agoSure. In terms of odds, Bayes' theorem says (posterior odds) = (prior odds) * (likelihood ratio) The prior odds are 1/999, so we need to show that the likelihood ratio is 2^10. The likelihood ratio is the probability of seeing 10 heads from a double-headed coin divided by the probability of seeing 10 heads from a fair coin, which is 1/((1/2)^10) or 2^10.