I don't buy this division into can - the good and cannot - the bad. It's just two strategies with different outcome distributions. The critic will be right more

I don't buy this division into can - the good and cannot - the bad. It's just two strategies with different outcome distributions. The critic will be right more often, invest in boring tried ideas, earn less on average but with less variance. The enthusiast will often fail but when he's right against the common knowledge, he hits the jackpot. And picking those jackpots and their critics ignores the majority of crazy ideas that indeed fail - "They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown." Here's some criticism of a crazy idea that actually failed (CueCat): http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/fog0000000037.html http://www.joelonsoftware.com/articles/fog0000000037.html Obviously there is a lot of criticism for the sake of proving oneself smug. Unfortunately sounding smug does not automatically make one wrong.