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Don't confuse the end of Moore's Law with the end of computer technology progress. Moore's Law is actually a pretty specific law. It says the amount of transist
by salient 13y ago
Don't confuse the end of Moore's Law with the end of computer technology progress. Moore's Law is actually a pretty specific law. It says the amount of transistors in the same amount of space doubles every 2 years. We're reaching the "end of Moore's Law", because we're getting to the point where we're close to making a transistor the size of an atom, which I think is pretty much the end of "doubling the number of transistors in the same amount of space every 2 years".
That doesn't mean that after we reach this limit we won't be making quantum computers, or use other materials like graphene transistors that can probably reach TerraHertz clock speeds, which may even improve at a rate of 2x every 2 years, too. But it wouldn't be "Moore's Law".
We're also working on "brain-like" computers, but I think these and quantum computers will become "mainstream", in a general-purpose way (not just for very specific tasks), in a few decades, which should be quite a while after Moore's Law dies (in the 2020's).
So the most likely thing is that we'll use other kind of materials for the same type of "classical computers" for the next few decades, even after the end of Moore's Law, but they will improve through increasing their clock speed or through other ways, rather than getting that extra performance from adding more transistors.
- rbanffy 13y agoOriginally, it stated the number of transistors per component will double every year. If the defect density (or susceptibility to defects) goes down, it's possible to manufacture larger, more complex, components for the same price. This sort-of applies for stacked dies, with the denser interconnects and added bandwidth between layers adding to effectively higher density than single-chip (but that would be kind of cheating on Moore's Law). A looser formulation talks about computing power. In that, we have been ahead of Moore's law with GPGPUs and vector units for quite some time. This formulation is more detached from physical process details and looks more like what the market can absorb. In the end, what the market can absorb may prove the ultimate limit.