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It's been my worry for a while that we will achieve the marxist workers utopia technically, where the vast majority of work is done by robot, but culturally we

It's been my worry for a while that we will achieve the marxist workers utopia technically, where the vast majority of work is done by robot, but culturally we will be stuck with a small group of people enjoying the rewards of capital and technology and an enormous group of miserable poor fighting each other to get the rare chance to work. Even if you think that such an outcome is 'deserved' for the capitalist and technologist in the short term, in the long term, as the divide grows sharper, I believe most people will come to see that there's something appalling about giving all of the wealth of the world to the descendants of the few and nothing to the rest. Already one family in the USA control more wealth than approximately half the population. And this will get starker. Technology enhances power, and we are currently stuck with a system where much more worrying than the 'rich getting richer', the 'powerful get more powerful'. And the technological concentration of power in the hands of capital goes alongside the concentration of military and political power too. In the past, when capital got too far ahead of labour, there was always the spectacle of revolution to act as a last ditch moderator and equaliser, but the future will give those in power unprecedented access to surveillance, intelligence and military ability to allow the divide to grow bigger than ever before. We need to find a way to share the amazing gains that technology brings with labour as well as with capital, and do so in a way that doesn't disincentivise the creation of new technology, and we need to start coming up with this really soon to have any chance of heading off a disaster. I think this is one of the most serious issues facing us as people who care about technology and the world.

beat 13y ago
That's why I think Guaranteed Income schemes are inevitable politically, in the developed countries. Sooner or later, one is going to do it (Switzerland?), and within a couple of decades, all the rest will follow. Hopefully, this will lead to a realignment of society's sense of "value" away from currency and things exchangeable for currency. Money-driven thinking is the curse of Marxists as much as capitalists.
- anonymfus 13y ago
  The problem is that capitalism, as any other paperclip maximizer, will not stop working just because of one country decision. Minimal income will increase cost of labour because nobody would want to do shitty job. This will make local products more costly and less competitive, and most of the labour will be outsourced. Most of the export will be natural resources. Switzerland owns huge chunk of world's banking system and due to direct democracy has minimal corruption, so it could afford minimal income by exploitation of other countries. How to make it work for Ethiopia without Earth's unite government and worldwide wealth redistribution system?
  - beat 13y ago
    A few problems with this. First, most of the modern crap jobs are service-oriented jobs that are done locally because they can't be outsourced. You're talking about "products", which often can be outsourced, and thus have already been outsourced. Not every job is manufacturing. You can't outsource your janitor or dishwasher. Second, Ethiopia doesn't have a functioning modern economy. So no, they can't do Guaranteed Income. If they want it, they need to modernize to the point where they can provide a stable economy first. Exploited? No one bothers to exploit them. Given the political and economic instability, it's not worth exploiting. Much better to exploit countries like Indonesia that can provide basic stability. But you're also stuck on the whole exploitation thing. That's a very 20th century attitude. Exploitation for natural resources is no longer the driver of economics. The primary resource now is labor, particularly skilled labor, and that becomes increasingly expensive as it becomes successful - in other words, being "exploited" is the best and fastest way for countries to become wealthier and more independent.
spdy 13y ago
Just imagine autonomous cars/drones/delivery-bots etc. millions of jobs lost overnight. Society will change for good in the coming decade and if thinks go wrong we will have a dystopia coming for us. And people with power/money usually aren`t interested in the greater good. Our current financial system is doomed to fail and the reset button will not come this time.
AndrewKemendo 13y ago
>It's been my worry for a while that we will achieve the marxist workers utopia technically This is actually my mid-term goal with the food service industry, driving labor costs to insignificant (not that it would realistically get to zero). How I anticipate addressing the problems you describe are several fold: 1) Job training and direct hiring for technologically displaced workers in the industry 2) Free food for low/no income people 3) Political advocacy for the basic income These aren't magic bullets but I think they would go the furthest to bring everyone up while moving technology forward.
GFischer 13y ago
It's called the "service economy". 99% of us will be fighting to capture some income from the 1% either in zero-sum services (such as advertising), or better and more exotic leisure (travel, cooking, experiences) and healthcare and other services for the 1%, with some spillover effect. I imagine something like the Apple store extended to the whole economy, with thousands competing for one sale, a few big winners (the chosen restaurants, the chosen services) and thousands or millions of losers for each winner, surviving on the long tail. As the article says, more lawyers and burger flippers. No more middle class clerks or bank tellers and especially no more blue collar workers or farmers. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Service_economy http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Service_economy Edit: what Joe_Altmaier said https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6990430 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6990430 Edit2: World Bank paper detailing the growth of services in a postindustrial economy: http://www.worldbank.org/depweb/beyond/beyondco/beg_09.pdf http://www.worldbank.org/depweb/beyond/beyondco/beg_09.pdf "As incomes continue to rise, people’s needs become less “material” and they begin to demand more services—in health, education, entertainment, and many other areas" "Meanwhile, labor productivity in services does not grow as fast as it does in agriculture and industry because most service jobs cannot be filled by machines. This makes services more expensive relative to agricultural and industrial goods, further increasing the share of services in GDP. The lower mechanization of services also explains why employment in the service sector continues to grow while employment in agriculture and industry declines because of technological progress that increases labor productivity and eliminates jobs. (Figure 9.2). Eventually the service sector replaces the industrial sector "

beat 13y ago

That's why I think Guaranteed Income schemes are inevitable politically, in the developed countries. Sooner or later, one is going to do it (Switzerland?), and within a couple of decades, all the rest will follow. Hopefully, this will lead to a realignment of society's sense of "value" away from currency and things exchangeable for currency. Money-driven thinking is the curse of Marxists as much as capitalists.

anonymfus 13y ago
The problem is that capitalism, as any other paperclip maximizer, will not stop working just because of one country decision. Minimal income will increase cost of labour because nobody would want to do shitty job. This will make local products more costly and less competitive, and most of the labour will be outsourced. Most of the export will be natural resources. Switzerland owns huge chunk of world's banking system and due to direct democracy has minimal corruption, so it could afford minimal income by exploitation of other countries. How to make it work for Ethiopia without Earth's unite government and worldwide wealth redistribution system?
- beat 13y ago
  A few problems with this. First, most of the modern crap jobs are service-oriented jobs that are done locally because they can't be outsourced. You're talking about "products", which often can be outsourced, and thus have already been outsourced. Not every job is manufacturing. You can't outsource your janitor or dishwasher. Second, Ethiopia doesn't have a functioning modern economy. So no, they can't do Guaranteed Income. If they want it, they need to modernize to the point where they can provide a stable economy first. Exploited? No one bothers to exploit them. Given the political and economic instability, it's not worth exploiting. Much better to exploit countries like Indonesia that can provide basic stability. But you're also stuck on the whole exploitation thing. That's a very 20th century attitude. Exploitation for natural resources is no longer the driver of economics. The primary resource now is labor, particularly skilled labor, and that becomes increasingly expensive as it becomes successful - in other words, being "exploited" is the best and fastest way for countries to become wealthier and more independent.

spdy 13y ago

Just imagine autonomous cars/drones/delivery-bots etc. millions of jobs lost overnight. Society will change for good in the coming decade and if thinks go wrong we will have a dystopia coming for us. And people with power/money usually aren`t interested in the greater good. Our current financial system is doomed to fail and the reset button will not come this time.

AndrewKemendo 13y ago

>It's been my worry for a while that we will achieve the marxist workers utopia technically This is actually my mid-term goal with the food service industry, driving labor costs to insignificant (not that it would realistically get to zero). How I anticipate addressing the problems you describe are several fold: 1) Job training and direct hiring for technologically displaced workers in the industry 2) Free food for low/no income people 3) Political advocacy for the basic income These aren't magic bullets but I think they would go the furthest to bring everyone up while moving technology forward.

GFischer 13y ago

It's called the "service economy". 99% of us will be fighting to capture some income from the 1% either in zero-sum services (such as advertising), or better and more exotic leisure (travel, cooking, experiences) and healthcare and other services for the 1%, with some spillover effect. I imagine something like the Apple store extended to the whole economy, with thousands competing for one sale, a few big winners (the chosen restaurants, the chosen services) and thousands or millions of losers for each winner, surviving on the long tail. As the article says, more lawyers and burger flippers. No more middle class clerks or bank tellers and especially no more blue collar workers or farmers. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Service_economy http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Service_economy Edit: what Joe_Altmaier said https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6990430 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6990430 Edit2: World Bank paper detailing the growth of services in a postindustrial economy: http://www.worldbank.org/depweb/beyond/beyondco/beg_09.pdf http://www.worldbank.org/depweb/beyond/beyondco/beg_09.pdf "As incomes continue to rise, people’s needs become less “material” and they begin to demand more services—in health, education, entertainment, and many other areas" "Meanwhile, labor productivity in services does not grow as fast as it does in agriculture and industry because most service jobs cannot be filled by machines. This makes services more expensive relative to agricultural and industrial goods, further increasing the share of services in GDP. The lower mechanization of services also explains why employment in the service sector continues to grow while employment in agriculture and industry declines because of technological progress that increases labor productivity and eliminates jobs. (Figure 9.2). Eventually the service sector replaces the industrial sector "