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I have immense respect for successful people, like the author, who recognize that their success is a factor of skill, opportunity, cash, and luck. "I am a deit

I have immense respect for successful people, like the author, who recognize that their success is a factor of skill, opportunity, cash, and luck. "I am a deity destined to succeed" is a belief held too often by people who have early success in their lives.

wyager 13y ago
Luck is probabilistic. Persistence allows one to exponentially reduce the chance of a negative outcome. If you fail, try again. And again. And again. Of all the self-made rich people that I know, their one common trait is persistence. They failed a lot. They didn't let bad luck stop them.
- thatthatis 13y ago
  We agree on the effect that perseverance has on finding good luck.
- mrow84 13y ago
  To translate the article into your probability of success framework: wealth confers both a higher probability of success at each attempt, and the ability to make more attempts without becoming impoverished. Given that the 'number of attempts' part of the equation is generally quite a small number, if you do the basic maths implied by your comment then you can see how valuable it is to be able to afford a couple more tries at success for people with moderate chances. That same maths also shows how difficult it is to succeed at the bottom end of the 'probability of success per attempt' space, and how even very small increases in that probability can make large (expected) changes in outcome.
  - thatthatis 13y ago
    This is one of the best explanations of how wealth can buy luck that I think I've ever read. Thank you.
- sejje 13y ago
  And frankly, of all the poor people I know (I own a local bar so I know many, many poor people), they share a common trait: they don't even try. At ANYTHING. They never even take a shot at making themselves valuable.
  - mercer 13y ago
    My impression is that not trying in itself is (to a degree) an effect of being poor. I feel people often forget that poverty affects the mind as much as the physical reality, and that makes the whole issue a lot more complicated.

wyager 13y ago

Luck is probabilistic. Persistence allows one to exponentially reduce the chance of a negative outcome. If you fail, try again. And again. And again. Of all the self-made rich people that I know, their one common trait is persistence. They failed a lot. They didn't let bad luck stop them.

thatthatis 13y ago
We agree on the effect that perseverance has on finding good luck.
mrow84 13y ago
To translate the article into your probability of success framework: wealth confers both a higher probability of success at each attempt, and the ability to make more attempts without becoming impoverished. Given that the 'number of attempts' part of the equation is generally quite a small number, if you do the basic maths implied by your comment then you can see how valuable it is to be able to afford a couple more tries at success for people with moderate chances. That same maths also shows how difficult it is to succeed at the bottom end of the 'probability of success per attempt' space, and how even very small increases in that probability can make large (expected) changes in outcome.
- thatthatis 13y ago
  This is one of the best explanations of how wealth can buy luck that I think I've ever read. Thank you.
sejje 13y ago
And frankly, of all the poor people I know (I own a local bar so I know many, many poor people), they share a common trait: they don't even try. At ANYTHING. They never even take a shot at making themselves valuable.
- mercer 13y ago
  My impression is that not trying in itself is (to a degree) an effect of being poor. I feel people often forget that poverty affects the mind as much as the physical reality, and that makes the whole issue a lot more complicated.