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Full quotes: * The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in "Metcalfe's law"--which states that the number of potential connections in a ne
by patrickaljord 13y ago
Full quotes:
* The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in "Metcalfe's law"--which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants--becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's.
* As the rate of technological change in computing slows, the number of jobs for IT specialists will decelerate, then actually turn down; ten years from now, the phrase information economy will sound silly.
- elgabogringo 13y ago"Why most economists' predictions are wrong." - By an economist whose predictions are mostly wrong.
- phaed 13y agoHow is this guy still taken seriously?
- cblanc 13y agoBecause he's one of the of the most respected scholars in the field of Economics? He's likely devoted thousands more hours than us pondering economic matters. I'm just looking through his wiki here... published hundreds of scholarly articles and 20 books. A professor of Economics at some of the best universities in the world. He's even received a Nobel Prize. How can we fault someone for taking Paul Krugman seriously on economic matters?
- VMG 13y agoThen how could he have been so wrong in his prediction?
- MisterBastahrd 13y agoPlease explain exactly how he is wrong. The internet hasn't substantially changed the rate of growth nor the size of the economy. It also hasn't created any new transformative markets. It has simply made them more accessible. That's why the fax machine analogy is so apt. Amazon is a storefront. Google is an ad service. Facebook is a glorified telegraph service. It doesn't matter how nifty their tech is. The only thing that matters in this context is what they do, and how that affects the overall economy.