It also looks like misaligned incentives to me. If ICANN is getting $25k / year per TLD... do they really want to notice? Won't they decide that they're better

It also looks like misaligned incentives to me. If ICANN is getting $25k / year per TLD... do they really want to notice? Won't they decide that they're better off waiting until there's a lawsuit? (that way they won't have to refund the 25k)