Here's an article from 1995 titled "Japan May Still Surpass U.s. To Become Leading Economic Power By The Year 2000":http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1995-04-1

Here's an article from 1995 titled "Japan May Still Surpass U.s. To Become Leading Economic Power By The Year 2000":http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1995-04-10/business/9504100029_1_eamonn-fingleton-japan-yen http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1995-04-10/business/95041... While the overall trajectory maybe right, the comparisons between the likes of USSR is really incorrect. The actual "fall" of the USSR came at the dissolution of the lands conquered by the old Russian Empire. The tensions driving that, besides obvious greed for money and power, were that those pieces weren't always together to begin with. Russia, Belarus and most of Ukraine were, but much of the rest was absorbed through violence. Even today, Ukraine's west and east are at odds with each other - one part wanting to come back to Russia and the other wanting to go back to Poland/Europe. The military strength is likely to depend a lot more on unmanned machinery in the next few decades rather than on human soldiers. If true, that would erode much of the advantage China and India hold from the sheer numbers stand point. Economically, China may very well develop to be #1. That said, they do have a long road ahead of them in terms of really sustaining their own buying behaviors. Currently, US is #1 through much of its own consumption. This is a very remarkable feat. The extremely robust domestic market is not something most other countries can really boast. Currently, both India and China need others to consume a very large share of what they produce. While I'm not really sure of all the measures McKinsey analysts are using here, it is a good illustration of just how much China still depends on exports: http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/globalization/a_truer_picture_of_chinas_export_machine http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/globalization/a_truer_pictu... The article does note a shift to more finished goods export and focus on the internal market, it is far from a complete process. Incidentally, these shifts and the strengthening of the middle class that seems so vital, will also likely bring about more political unrest. India is likely to experience social issues as the population gets wealthier, as shown by the recent debacle with the Indian diplomat and her house servant...