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Really ? Where were the technological improvements when oil shot up to $150 in 2008 ? Sure technological improvements eventually got us to the energy level we
by waps 13y ago
Really ? Where were the technological improvements when oil shot up to $150 in 2008 ?
Sure technological improvements eventually got us to the energy level we were at in 2005 ... but only just barely and only for a week. Since then it's been going down, with predictable results.
And while shale (currently) provides a few years delay, it's only for a few years, and maybe even only America. That's the problem with these ass-saving technologies. The first few times they saved our ass for several centuries (coal + trains, which will keep working, later nuclear). The next revolution saved our collective energy-hogging asses for ~60 years. The next one, horizontal drilling, did for ~10-15 years. Now we have shale oil, which saves our asses for 5-6 years tops.
The situation is not as rosy as you indicate at all. We're effectively dependent on ALL technologies operating at totally maxed out capacity for economic prosperity, and a lot of these technologies are faltering all at the same time. It won't be pretty.
Frankly we have ~5 years to increase the efficiency of batteries (which have improved a factor 2 in ~100 years in mass/energy and volume/energy). Not by a factor of 2, but a factor of 10, to keep our society at the same technological level. Nobody has any even theoretical ideas to get a twofold improvement. We only have 5 years because of shale oil, and we knew perfectly well in 2000 that we'd need this super-battery before the decade was out, and humanity simply failed ...
I went to a robotic mechanics lecture 2 years ago. The opening line was this : you climbed 5 floors to get here, and you got seriously tired (the elevators were out). If you had been the best robot we have, with roughly half it's weight dedicated to battery you would have just used ~50% of the total energy contents of your battery. This is a problem that needs to be solved before we have any real hope of true independent robots.
Oh and let's feel inspired by nature. Wait. How does nature solve this ? Well, here's the basic formula for oil CnH2n+2. Here's the basic formula for human fat : CnH2nOOH. In both cases the energy is stored in the same chemical structure. The energy is pretty much stored in the exact same chemical bonds in the human body (or any animal) and in a gas tank. In other words : in 4 billion years evolution did not find a better way. Do you think humanity is likely to improve upon it ?
You best hope so. Or we'll see repeats of 2008, except without recovery.
- fauigerzigerk 13y agoThere's not just the energy production and storage side of the equation. Technologies that increase engery efficiency are advancing pretty rapidly right now, in spite of the fact that energy cost is a much smaller share of GDP than it used to be. I am confident that peak consumption will outrun peak production and that we have a lot of leeway to reduce consumption even more quickly without making major changes to our way of life.
- waps 13y agoThen how do you explain the obvious correlation between 2008's financial events and the oil price ? And all the previous times that happened ? Or do you think we've advanced ridiculously beyond what we had in 2008 ?
- fauigerzigerk 13y agoMy explanation is that both are caused by a third variable: A speculative credit bubble that affected all kinds of assets, including commodities and and real estate.
- JoeAltmaier 13y agoOrbital solar. Methane Hydrate. More efficient engines of industry. These things are in development/getting done now. Economies might suffer but when they are needed they will happen pretty quickly.
- SideburnsOfDoom 13y agoOrbital solar is in development? I'd love to read more on that!
- JoeAltmaier 13y agoWell, since the DoE study in 81, the only active project is one between China and India announced in 2012. Solar cell costs have come down 100X since the 70's, so in that sense its getting some attention. But since power is still so cheap, its hard to pay back the lift costs of any space-based installation that's been designed.
- qohen 13y agoI don't know how serious it is, but it appears that Japan has been looking into it too: From Oct. 2013: http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2013-10/02/japan-solar-energy http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2013-10/02/japan-solar-e... From Apr. 2009: http://phys.org/news172224356.html http://phys.org/news172224356.html
- coldtea 13y ago"In development" as in, "will be out in the mass market in 5 years", or as in "some research centers are taking grants and producing hald-assed results and/or there are some ho-hum products rushed out that don't work as expected and cost a ton"? In other words, as in "next generation SSDs" or as in "memsistor drives/holographic memory for everybody".