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I ran the numbers based on voting percentages from the 2012 presidential election. I also added a rough guess at expected House members; hard to guess the break
by BryantD 13y ago
I ran the numbers based on voting percentages from the 2012 presidential election. I also added a rough guess at expected House members; hard to guess the breakdown given gerrymandering. Anyhow, yeah, this marginally tosses some electoral votes to the Republicans and you have to expect that South California would be more heavily contested so a bit of a tossup. Central California too, but South California is the big deal.
DEM REP DEM % REP % POP HOUSE
Jefferson 175,551 187,898 48% 52% 949,240 1
North California 889,742 599,778 60% 40% 3,742,229 5
Central California 542,933 573,944 49% 51% 4,124,776 5
Silicon Valley 1,904,135 608,154 76% 24% 6,597,332 9
West California 2,543,219 1,157,864 69% 31% 11,335,455 15
South California 1,798,705 1,712,320 51% 49% 10,504,924 14
- alexeisadeski3 13y agoThis is why we love the internet.
- dragonwriter 13y ago> I ran the numbers based on voting percentages from the 2012 presidential election. The 2008 and 2012 Presidential elections (that is, the votes for President specifically, not the 2008 and 2012 elections in general) have most parts of the state voting substantially more Democratic than normal (either past Presidential elections or non-Presidential elections in the same period.) That may be a durable Presidential realignment, but I'd be a bit skeptical of that; even if it is, those last two Presidential elections are probably understate the Republican position for anything but Presidential elections (if its not a durable Presidential realignment, it overstates the Republican position even there.)